XRP has demonstrated remarkable resilience, trading around $1.06 with a 2% gain over the past 24 hours, despite Ripple executing its scheduled monthly escrow unlock on July 1, releasing exactly 1 billion XRP in three separate transactions worth approximately $1.04 billion at current prices. The token closed June with losses approaching 20%, hitting a 19-month low around $1.01 on June 25, before recovering to trade near $1.04. The latest unlock now places fresh attention on Ripple's supply management practices, with the company typically relocking the majority of unlocked tokens within hours or days, returning 600-800 million XRP back into escrow. This mechanism, dating back to 2017 when Ripple originally placed 55 billion XRP into escrow to prevent sudden market dumps, provides transparent liquidity for operational expenses and ecosystem growth without flooding the market unexpectedly.
Despite the billion-token unlock, XRP spot flows remained relatively stable with negative netflows of approximately $2.87 million, indicating that exchange outflows continued exceeding inflows during the latest session. The pattern suggested traders had not rushed to transfer large amounts of XRP onto exchanges for immediate liquidation, with the relatively modest outflow reflecting restrained sell-side activity even after Ripple increased circulating supply. XRP continues defending the $1.03-$1.04 support region after several weeks of declining prices, with the asset trading near $1.049 while remaining well below major resistance levels around $1.26 and $1.50. However, 24-hour volume stands around $1.5 billion, indicating that buyers have continued stepping in on pullbacks instead of chasing every rally, keeping short-term momentum intact. The $1.05-$1.06 area now serves as the first support to watch, while $1.10-$1.13 remains the key resistance zone that XRP is currently testing.
XRP spot ETF data shows one daily outflow on June 30 with net withdrawals of $2.83 million, marking the only red day since June 3. However, June still ended with $59.46 million in total net inflows, bringing cumulative net inflows to $1.48 billion across all spot XRP ETFs. Strong daily inflows of $15.63 million on June 26 and $15.34 million on June 29 more than offset the June 30 outflow, demonstrating that fund demand remained present even as XRP price action stayed weak. However, total net assets fell to $944.06 million on June 30 from $971.63 million on June 29, suggesting that XRP's falling price reduced ETF asset value despite positive monthly flows. The $1.0460 is the first resistance level after capping the 24-hour range, while $1.08-$1.10 represents the next meaningful hurdle that would be needed before traders can talk about a stronger recovery.
From a technical perspective, XRP is exhibiting constructive technical sentiment with recent resistance flipping into support, keeping the short-term trend intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 32.76, remaining below the neutral 50 level despite recovering from deeply oversold conditions earlier in June. The reading indicates that selling pressure has eased slightly but still dominates the broader trend, with XRP trading well below the $1.2386 resistance while failing to establish a sequence of higher highs. Technical charts showed XRP in a falling channel, with key resistance around $1.18–$1.22 and strong support at $1.00-$1.02. A break above these levels could signal recovery, while a sustained hold below $1.00–$1.02 might test deeper supports. The MACD also reflected bearish conditions with its signal line staying below the zero line, while the MACD line remained slightly beneath the signal line, indicating persistent bearish conditions despite recent stabilization. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed after June's selloff, pointing to lower volatility, but XRP still needs to reclaim the middle band near $1.12 to show a stronger recovery.
The Liquidation Heatmap revealed that the largest concentration of leveraged liquidity remained below XRP's current trading price, with the brightest liquidity zone appearing around the $1.02-$1.03 range, directly beneath the market. This imbalance suggests that leveraged positions had clustered beneath XRP rather than above nearby resistance, with smaller liquidity pockets existing above current price levels but lacking the intensity shown below support. If sellers force XRP below its current support, the price could accelerate toward those liquidity pools before stabilizing. However, continued defense of the present range would likely prevent those positions from being triggered. The 20-day EMA is near $1.11, the 50-day near $1.20, the 100-day near $1.31 and the 200-day near $1.52, with $1.00 remaining the key support level. Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO noted that XRP's monthly RSI has entered its most oversold zone in history and is now flattening, suggesting potential for bullish divergence near oversold market levels. The bullish outlook weakens if XRP closes below $1.01, which would shift attention toward the $0.99 support zone, though XRP still trades roughly 72% below its all-time high, leaving plenty of room if momentum returns.
