Bitcoin has recovered above $66,000 following a technical breakout that saw the cryptocurrency slip below its 200-period EMA before reclaiming it on July 21. The recovery is supported by improving on-chain metrics, with the Momentum Whale Inflow Ratio hitting a 2026 low, indicating reduced selling pressure from large holders. Hodler Net Position Change jumped 47% from a monthly low near 13,000 BTC to 19,059 BTC on July 21, suggesting patient long-term holders are accumulating rather than selling. A bullish crossover is forming as the 50-period EMA curls up toward the 100-period line, similar to the pattern that triggered a 5.6% rally in early July. However, the path toward $72,000 remains blocked by a significant resistance wall near $66,900, where URPD data shows 1.96% of Bitcoin supply (394,000 coins) camped at breakeven levels.
Democratic senators are divided on the recent White House ethics deal, with Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) calling it an 'unserious offer' and warning she won't support the CLARITY Act if the Department of Justice becomes the sole enforcer of ethics violations. The deal proposes that the Department of Justice be the only enforcement authority for any cases related to ethical violations by top government officials, contrary to Democrats' initial push for state attorneys general to oversee enforcement. Democrat Ruben Gallego echoed similar concerns, telling PunchBowl News that 'You gotta go find Democratic votes. We're not gonna stand for some simple, inadequate piece of legislation'. For the final Senate floor vote, Republicans will need 7-10 Democrats to hit the 60-vote threshold, making Alsobrooks and Gallego's support crucial as they were the only Democratic Senators who voted 'YES' for the CLARITY Act to clear Committee markup.
The ethics fallout has also threatened to trigger divisive intra-party politics within the Democratic Party, with three activist groups — Indivisible, Demand Progress, and Revolving Door Project — slamming Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, for a conflict of interest. The progressive groups slammed Gillibrand in a recent letter to Senate Democrats, stating 'Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is a prime example of a Democratic leader whose conduct undermines efforts to hold the Trump administration accountable for their rampant corruption'. The dispute centers on Gillibrand's son, Theo Gillibrand, who is involved in the crypto sector, similar to the Trump family's interest in crypto, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest among Democratic leadership.
August 7 — the fast-approaching final day before the Senate's summer recess — is seen as a major deadline for finishing the Clarity Act this year, with crypto insiders expecting the bill to get to the floor as soon as the beginning of next week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the breakthrough, stating the Senate is now at the 1-yard line and wants the bill passed before the August recess. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has voiced cautious confidence that Republicans and Democrats can reach an agreement, stating there was a 'good chance' of a deal while warning that talks could still take a different course. The legislation could require several days to get to a final vote, with the bill then needing another approval from the U.S. House of Representatives when it returns to session in September. The ethics agreement meaningfully shifts the probability distribution toward passage, but traders should treat the outcome as unresolved until the revised text clears and Democratic floor commitments are on record.
The market was more optimistic that the CLARITY Act could be passed in 2027, with prediction site Kalshi showing the chance of the bill's passage before 2027 at 38%, while the odds surged to 61% for Q1 2027. However, Bitcoin has gained momentum with the latest CLARITY Act developments, trading above $66,000 on Tuesday and reaching a seven-week high, while Coinbase shares rose about 10% and Circle gained roughly 7%. Ethereum rose 4.4% and XRP added 4.3% in today's broader market rally, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulling in about $727 million over five days, marking their longest inflow streak since May. On-chain data makes the $70,000 case simpler, with Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution showing only about 1% of Bitcoin supply last changed hands between here and $70,685. The technical setup suggests Bitcoin needs to clear $66,284 to unlock the path toward $68,647 and the $72,000 zone, with failure potentially sending prices back to $65,465 and $64,823.
