XRP has recovered 19% from April lows, climbing nearly 19% to trade around $1.47 as the token moves closer to the apex of a symmetrical triangle that has controlled price action since February. The recovery comes as the Senate Banking Committee's CLARITY Act markup vote concluded Thursday at 10:30 AM EST with mixed results that have created a critical juncture for XRP's near-term outlook. The token is trading in the $1.44–$1.50 range, facing heavy selling pressure as 60% of circulating supply is held near this cost basis, creating a significant resistance wall for bulls. However, XRP is holding at $1.45, up around 1.1% on the day, reflecting the asset most directly tied to today's CLARITY Act markup as holding up against the broader sell-off.
XRP faces significant technical resistance at the $1.44–$1.45 level, where approximately 36.8 billion XRP is held, creating a strong resistance wall that has stalled previous rally attempts since early February. However, the first and most immediate resistance sits at $1.529, where the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement aligns with the triangle apex, with analysts noting that a daily close above this level could open the path toward the $1.697 to $1.764 resistance region. The second barrier sits between $1.697 and $1.764, while a broader gap remains open between $1.80 and $2.10, creating a key upside target if momentum strengthens. Clearing both levels would open the path to the third target: roughly $1.98, the technical measured objective of the triangle pattern, which would represent a gain of approximately 36% from current prices. A successful CLARITY Act vote could hold the breakout and target the $1.65–$1.80 range, while a stall could relegate XRP back to the $1.30–$1.45 range.
Trading activity across derivatives markets increased sharply during the latest session, with volume climbing 176% to $5.36 billion and open interest rising 6.4% to $2.87 billion as traders expanded positions ahead of a possible breakout. Options trading also accelerated, with options volume jumping more than 330% to $2.59 million, while long positions continued dominating Binance and OKX, where long to short ratios remained above 2.5 among retail traders and major accounts. Liquidation data showed shorts absorbing slightly larger losses than bullish positions during the past 24 hours, with analysts viewing this imbalance as an early sign that short sellers could face additional pressure if XRP closes above nearby resistance zones. Negative funding rates on Binance remained negative for nearly three months despite XRP posting a 27% gain, highlighting continued bearish positioning pressure across derivatives markets.
The Senate Banking Committee's CLARITY Act markup concluded Thursday at 10:30 AM EST with mixed results that have created a critical juncture for XRP's near-term outlook. Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana committed his support on Wednesday after cutting a deal with Chairman Tim Scott to bundle two of his own amendments into the package - a fiduciary duty provision requiring crypto industry participants to act in clients' best interest, and Section 904, the Build Now Act housing bill he co-sponsored with Senator Elizabeth Warren. This deal effectively locked in all 13 Republican votes, with the market reaction being immediate as Polymarket odds for 2026 CLARITY passage jumped from 62% to 73% on the Kennedy news. Analysts suggest an approval at the committee level could send XRP back toward $1.80 and eventually $2 as investors position around the next legislative milestone. If the bill advances through the full Senate and clears the House ahead of a July 4 White House deadline, the token could push toward $2.50, a price last reached in November 2025. XRP has historically averaged a 28.4% gain in the third quarter over the last five years, suggesting potential for a Q3 target near $3.21 if the move to $2.50 materializes.
Beyond the immediate targets, XRP's long-term direction runs through a set of resistance levels that have repeatedly stalled the token since mid-February. Analyst EGRAG Crypto has flagged the 21-period exponential moving average on the two-month timeframe as the defining line between an ongoing bull cycle and a broader structural breakdown. XRP currently trades above it and has maintained a pattern of higher lows for several years inside a multi-year ascending triangle that it entered in 2017. If XRP clears the key resistance range between $2.40 and $3.36, analysts have outlined an expansion path toward the $7 to $13 range. A failure to hold current support, however, puts a deeper correction toward $0.77 at a probability of roughly 50 to 55%, according to the same analysis. Whether that level holds into the fourth quarter would depend on whether sustained demand can absorb the wave of profit-taking that typically follows large rallies.
