MSTR shares have rebounded above $100 as bitcoin climbed past $62,000, with the stock gaining more than 10% during the session and climbing over 23% from its recent low near $82 over the past five trading days. According to Yahoo Finance data, MSTR rose to an intraday high of about $104 after reclaiming the psychologically important $100 level. The recovery came as Bitcoin briefly traded above $62,000 after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data improved sentiment across risk assets. Other crypto-linked equities, including Coinbase, Robinhood, Marathon Digital, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, and Hut 8, also recorded notable gains during the session, highlighting the broader crypto market recovery.
Michael Saylor has highlighted that MSTR currently carries an open interest-to-market-cap ratio of almost 72%, making it the highest among the companies he compared. According to a July 2 X post by Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor, Tesla ranked a distant second at 16%, followed by Meta at 11%, Microsoft at 6.1%, Nvidia at 5.8%, Amazon at 4.4%, Alphabet at 4.2%, and Apple at 3.2%. Open interest measures the total number of outstanding derivatives contracts tied to a stock, with a high open interest-to-market-cap ratio pointing to unusually large positioning relative to the company's size. Heavy derivatives positioning has outpaced Big Tech peers, with the metric alone not indicating whether traders are betting on gains or losses because it includes both long and short positions.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued that STRC's collapse represents a natural late-cycle deleveraging event rather than evidence of Strategy's impending liquidation. According to Hougan's Wednesday blog post, "The volatility in STRC is a natural and important part of the crypto cycle. I think we're nearing the bottom." The asset manager noted that Strategy remains fundamentally well-capitalized with roughly $52 billion in liquid assets against about $7 billion of debt. Hougan pointed to MSTR trading at a discount to its net asset value as one of the indicators worth monitoring while discussing Strategy's recently introduced digital credit framework, under which the company could sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin. Bitwise believes STRC volatility is part of the leverage unwind that typically marks the late stages of every crypto cycle, as speculative excess is flushed from the system.
Wall Street analysts have become more cautious on Strategy's stock valuation despite recent bitcoin strength. As previously reported by crypto.news, Canaccord lowered its price target on the company to $130 from $163, attributing the revision to Strategy's prolonged share price decline rather than any change in its long-term Bitcoin outlook. The brokerage said its investment thesis for Bitcoin remains intact despite the lower target. TD Cowen cut its Strategy price target to $260 from $400 while maintaining its Buy rating, indicating that although valuation expectations have been reduced, some analysts continue to back the company's long-term exposure to Bitcoin. Hougan maintained that institutional investors are likely to overtake Strategy as the largest buyers of Bitcoin over time, while noting that the company is unlikely to become a forced seller because no mechanism currently exists that would require it to liquidate large portions of its Bitcoin holdings.
The cryptocurrency market has become the subject of intense debate after widely circulated sentiment suggested that digital assets may be at their most undervalued point in history. According to MEXC, this view has gained traction among some traders and market commentators, with expectations building around a potential liquidity-driven recovery phase. However, analysts remain divided on whether current price levels truly represent undervaluation or simply reflect broader macroeconomic uncertainty and reduced speculative demand. The discussion has been widely circulated across social media platforms, with the sentiment highlighted by the X account AshCrypto, contributing to broader visibility within the trading community. While such discussions can influence short-term sentiment, analysts caution that social media narratives do not always reflect underlying market fundamentals.
