Solana (SOL) is currently trading near $74 after another rejection at the $78 resistance level, with the token rebuilding the same double top pattern that triggered a 21% drop earlier this year. The pattern formed with two peaks around July 15 and July 22, with the neckline dip near July 17, and the setup is building around fading buy volume that typically supports bearish readings. According to latest analysis, the neckline sits near $73, and a clean break would project a slide of roughly 7% toward the $67 area. The current top has formed on far lighter flows from roughly 0.2 million SOL in mid-July to about 0.9 million by July 22, suggesting weaker distribution pressure compared to the spring move. However, the pattern looks less symmetrical and weaker this time, with the risk staying alive while SOL's price action holds below the $79 zone. Since the 9th of July, SOL bulls have tried repeatedly to drive a price move beyond the $80 round-number supply zone but met with little success, with the token suffering steady losses throughout July after facing rejection from the 61.8% retracement level at $83.8.
Traders have accumulated over 50 million SOL at $73.75, transforming this level into Solana's largest on-chain accumulation zone despite recent price weakness. As reported by AMBCrypto, the scale of buying reflected growing conviction among market participants who continued building positions around the same level, reinforcing confidence in Solana's longer-term outlook. Such concentrated accumulation often reflects a preference to hold rather than exit positions, reducing the available supply circulating through the market. The activity distinguished $73.75 from every other price range, as no other zone attracted a comparable volume of accumulated tokens. This accumulation pattern suggests that investors view the current price level as attractive entry point, potentially supporting future price recovery if buyers can reclaim higher resistance levels.
Despite the price decline, Solana's network activity remains robust with the platform handling over 93 million transactions in the past day and roughly 4.7 million active addresses. According to DeFiLlama, the network processed around $9.83 billion in decentralised exchange volume over the past seven days, down 4.74% from the previous week, while daily active addresses remained near 2.16 million. The decline tracks broader crypto market pressures, with U.S.-Iran tensions pushing oil higher, triggering over approximately $670 million in liquidations and pressuring risk assets. As reported by Coinbase, Solana had 11,021 buyers, 6,342 sellers and total 16,417 trades in the last 24 hours, with the token being searched 4,355 times and having 21,056 unique individuals talking about it. Social media sentiment shows 42.8% bullish sentiment compared to 9.27% bearish sentiment on Twitter, with 57.2% neutral sentiment based on 51,817 tweets. Additionally, Circle has created 250 million USDC on Solana, increasing stablecoin liquidity across the ecosystem and supporting exchange liquidity and decentralized finance activity.
The HODL Waves metric, which groups SOL supply by how long each coin has stayed unmoved, reveals concerning behavior among long-term holders. During the spring double top, the one-to-two-year band held roughly flat near 15.9%, indicating long-term holders were not selling into the weakness. However, this time the reading has slipped from about 15.7% in mid-July to 15.17% by July 28, suggesting these holders are trimming exposure as the pattern forms. The steady decline in long-term holder support contrasts with the spring version, which never lost this crucial support level. This slipping long-term-holder support keeps the downside risk live, even though the current pattern forms on lighter exchange flows compared to the spring move. The exchange net position change, a metric that tracks tokens moving in and out of exchanges, shows much smaller readings during the current top, with the current top having formed on far lighter flows from roughly 0.2 million SOL in mid-July to about 0.9 million by July 22.
The $72-$73 neckline zone separates a failed double top from a confirmed breakdown toward $67, with a daily close below the $72 base confirming the double top pattern. For the bulls, the double-top risk stays intact while SOL trades under $78.92, and a daily close above $81 and ideally $84 would invalidate the near-term pattern and reopen the higher range. However, the 1-day timeframe shows bearish momentum with the RSI below neutral 50 and the MACD making a bearish crossover below the zero line, indicating further downside potential. The weekly chart shows a strong demand zone that extends across the current price area, with the yearly open price near $143.44 as a longer-term target. The 12-hour SOL/USD chart shows SOL has continued to print lower highs since peaking near $82 earlier in July, with each attempt to reclaim $78 being rejected. Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified the same bearish outlook after the altcoin lost a channel support, with the next price targets in August being $64.1 and $60.1. If a heavy Bitcoin sell-off occurs, it is likely that Solana prices would drop toward or lower than $50, making the $72-$73 neckline the critical level that will decide whether the current pattern follows the spring playbook or breaks from it.
