XRP has broken below the critical $1 support level, declining 2.8% over the past seven days and trading near $1.00 on August 17, according to crypto.news data. The token has now lost about 73% from its cycle high above $3, with the decline accelerating during the first half of August as XRP fell from approximately $1.14 to a low near $0.98. A short recovery subsequently returned the price to $1.00, but buyers have yet to secure a sustained daily close above nearby resistance. The latest breakdown has placed XRP at one of its most important psychological levels, with a daily close below $1 confirming that sellers can keep the price beneath a zone that previously attracted buyers. The struggle around $1 follows a wider retreat that began after the token traded above $2 in January, falling sharply to approximately $1.40 in February before consolidating through May and resuming its decline in June.
Daily Bollinger Bands place immediate resistance at $1.037 and support near $0.975, with XRP remaining below the middle line of its daily Bollinger Bands. The upper Bollinger Band sits near $1.099, creating a wider resistance zone between $1.04 and $1.10, while the lower band is positioned at approximately $0.975. Chaikin Money Flow on the daily chart stands at -0.17, indicating that selling volume has outweighed buying volume during the indicator's 20-session measurement period. The 4-hour chart shows a slightly more constructive signal with XRP trading around $1.001, where Chaikin Money Flow reading has risen to 0.09, suggesting some buyers entered near the latest lows. However, XRP remains below the main Ichimoku cloud with its upper boundary near $1.017, maintaining the bearish structure visible since late July. A 4-hour close above $1.017 would provide the first meaningful sign that buyers are regaining control.
CoinGlass' three-day liquidation heatmap shows dense concentration of leveraged positions immediately above XRP's current price, with the strongest upside pool located around $1.011 and additional liquidity near $1.02. The downside contains several liquidity pockets, with the clearest cluster sitting near $0.98, close to the daily lower Bollinger Band at $0.975. A decisive loss of $0.99 could expose the $0.98–$0.975 region and force leveraged long positions to close, potentially extending the decline toward $0.96. The heatmap leaves XRP between competing liquidity pools, making $1.011 the immediate upside level and $0.98 the main downside target. Price often moves toward areas containing large volumes of leveraged positions, with liquidations increasing volatility once those levels are reached.
Despite XRP's price weakness, network activity is picking up significantly with nearly 50,000 active addresses over one 24-hour stretch, the most in more than two months, according to Santiment data. The monthly relative strength index reached its most extreme reading in twelve years, deeper than the pandemic crash or the 2018 bear market, with Real-World Assets value on the XRPL sitting near $4.06 billion after adding roughly $2.5 billion over six months. Institutional adoption has accelerated with Aviva Investors, which manages $351 billion, launching a tokenized fund on the XRP Ledger with approval from the Central Bank of Ireland. However, spot product net inflows totaled $3.27 million so far in August, down roughly 88% from the $27.29 million recorded in July, as reported by SoSoValue data. The disconnect between adoption growth and token price performance has created uncertainty for investors, with analysts noting that the token network relationship is genuinely unresolved.
Analysts remain divided on XRP's near-term outlook, with Crypto Patel suggesting the token could fall another 20% to 40% before forming a major reversal, identifying $0.85–$0.65 as a long-term accumulation range but recommending gradual capital deployment rather than attempting to catch an exact bottom. Such a decline would require XRP to break the current $0.975 support and extend below the lower liquidity areas shown on the three-day heatmap. However, analyst Gerla offers a more constructive interpretation, arguing that XRP is testing a long-term trendline while forming a bullish divergence on the relative strength index, where the price records a lower low while momentum produces a higher low. The competing forecasts make confirmation around $1 more important than either projection, with US investors' immediate setup tied to liquidity and broader risk appetite: reclaiming $1.037 would weaken the bearish case, while a daily close below $0.975 would expose $0.96 and potentially the analyst's $0.85 accumulation level.
