MSCI has revived the index threat that deepened October's Bitcoin crash, opening a consultation that flags Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) for potential removal from its benchmarks. The index provider is now bringing the risk of future index removal back into focus for leading Bitcoin-focused firms, with Strategy and Metaplanet among six companies that could face removal or heightened scrutiny under the proposed methodology change. The two leading Bitcoin-focused firms are among three companies MSCI has identified as potential deletions, alongside UK-listed Yellow Cake, while Ethereum-centric Sharplink, Center Laboratories, and Lydia Holding would be put on a watchlist. The move comes after MSCI backed away from plans to exclude digital asset treasury companies from its indexes in the February 2026 review, but the latest consultation effectively puts the index-exclusion threat back on the table. MSCI has clarified that consultation on the new rule "may or may not lead to implementation of part or all of its proposals," seeking to avoid similar backlash from its previous proposal.
Strategy has pushed back against MSCI's proposed methodology for identifying "non-operating companies," arguing that index providers should measure markets rather than determine which assets public companies are allowed to own. The company stated on X that "Digital assets are assets. Index providers should measure markets, not decide which assets companies are allowed to own." Strategy emphasized that "MSCI's proposal puts it out of step with regulators, markets, and its own customers. Bitcoin doesn't need MSCI. Neither does Strategy." The response follows Strategy's formal objection in December 2025 to MSCI's previous proposal, which would have excluded companies whose digital assets represented at least 50% of total assets. Khing Oei, CEO of Treasury B.V, Europe's first BTC treasury firm backed by the Winklevoss twins, defended Strategy's operations, stating that "Strategy runs a permanent capital operation, listed preferreds and converts repriced by the credit market every day. Reading that as a passive holding is measuring the wrong side of the balance sheet." Strategy's preferred stocks like STRC, which represent 'digital credit', qualify the firm as an operating company according to Oei's assessment.
Short seller **Jim Chanos called Strategy and Bitcoin an "$80 billion actionable spread" on August 18, reviving debate over the valuation of Michael Saylor's Bitcoin treasury company. At Bitcoin's Tuesday price of approximately $64,188, Strategy's remaining holdings were worth about $53.95 billion, while MSTR had a market capitalization of roughly $34.4 billion. The $19.5 billion difference between those two figures is not a direct arbitrage profit, excluding debt, preferred stock, cash, software operations, taxes and the costs required to maintain a hedged position. Chanos's $80 billion figure is not a simple market gap - he did not publish a complete calculation showing how he reached the "$80 billion actionable spread," making the figure his characterization of the opportunity rather than a directly verifiable difference between two market prices. Strategy's dashboard placed its mNAV near 1.04 on Tuesday, indicating only a narrow enterprise value premium and not the wide premium that supported Chanos's original trade in 2025. An mNAV of 1.04 indicates a premium of approximately 4%, based on the company's methodology, showing the narrowing of the valuation gap.
The market has responded with significant concerns about Strategy's potential removal, with MSTR initially dropping by 2% during pre-market hours on Friday and closing down 4.18% at $93.04 for the trading session. The market is now pricing a 73% chance that Strategy will be deleted from the MSCI index by the end of the year, reflecting deepening concerns about the proposed exclusion. Strategy currently holds 840,447 Bitcoin worth approximately $62 billion, representing 99% of its enterprise value. The firm's Bitcoin-buying model, which primarily raises equity and debt to accumulate BTC rather than fund software operations, had been a prime target for the exclusion criteria. Strategy shares are down 4.3% on Friday as bitcoin dips to $62,849, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty around the proposed rules. Bitcoin trades near $62,849, roughly 50% below the record high above $126,000 reached in October 2025, according to BeInCrypto data.
MSCI's new proposal would establish a two-stage assessment framework for determining whether companies qualify as non-operating entities. Under the Core Screen, an issuer would need to demonstrate that more than half of its total assets are operating assets to qualify automatically. Companies that fail that test would then be assessed against five additional financial indicators that measure operating asset intensity, expense intensity, cash generation, fair value changes and dependence on capital raised for asset accumulation. An issuer would fail the proposed Exclusion Screen if it triggers at least four of the five indicators. The methodology includes safeguards intended to prevent abrupt index turnover, with non-constituents deemed ineligible based on their latest filings while existing index constituents would receive buffers and need to fail the relevant screens in two consecutive annual filing periods before being removed. Companies that fail based only on their latest filing would instead be placed on a public watchlist. Firms with zero cash flows, less than 20% of operating assets, and limited expenses will automatically trigger screening for possible deletion from the MSCI index, expanding the scope beyond just crypto assets to include companies like Yellow Cake that handle uranium. The consultation period runs through September 30, with results expected by mid-October, and if adopted, the changes would be implemented as part of the November 2026 Index Review.
