Meta is developing a standalone prediction markets app called Arena that could challenge industry leaders Polymarket and Kalshi, according to reports from The New York Times. Zuckerberg recently tasked a small team inside Meta with building the experimental app, which is internally known as "Arena." The standalone smartphone app would allow users to make predictions on everything from sports and politics to major news events, though it is expected to initially rely on a video game-style points system rather than real money betting. Unlike existing prediction markets, Arena would operate independently from Meta's flagship platforms including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, allowing Meta to leverage its massive audience of more than 3.5 billion people who use at least one of the company's apps daily. The effort is part of Zuckerberg's broader push to identify emerging online behaviors and build new products as growth on Meta's established platforms matures.
Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet have announced a strategic partnership to expand prediction markets globally, with co-branded placements during the FIFA World Cup 2026™ knockout stage and infrastructure development targeting international markets beyond the tournament. According to reports from Bank of America, Kalshi holds roughly 90% of the regulated US prediction market share, positioning it as the dominant player in the regulated prediction market space. The collaboration connects Kalshi with one of the world's biggest sporting events, giving soccer fans another reason to trade on World Cup prediction markets throughout the tournament. Prediction markets on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi reflect overwhelming confidence in Argentina for today's match, with implied winning probabilities for the defending champions ranging from 80% to 99%. The partnership highlights Kalshi's growing role in bringing regulated event trading to soccer fans during the World Cup.
The partnership will jointly launch a co-branded hub featuring football prediction markets, live updates, and exclusive fan content. Kalshi branding will appear alongside ADI Predictstreet in stadium, television, and online placements as the World Cup enters its knockout rounds. After the tournament, Kalshi will support market expansion across ADI Predictstreet's international footprint. Both companies will also explore infrastructure integrations on ADI Chain's technology, including plans for stablecoins, Web3 products, and on-chain settlement solutions for global markets. The partnership highlights Kalshi's growing role in bringing regulated event trading to soccer fans during the World Cup.
The announcement arrives during a record-breaking run for Kalshi, with the platform posting daily volumes exceeding $1 billion in the first two weeks of World Cup play. According to market-tracking data, Kalshi currently accounts for roughly 62% of total prediction market trading volume, with Polymarket at roughly 28%. This performance demonstrates the significant growth potential in regulated event trading during major sporting events, with the platform continuing to expand its presence in sports prediction markets throughout the tournament. Fan token activity and prediction market volumes have shown a clear correlation with World Cup matches throughout the tournament, with each kickoff generating a spike in trading interest.
The prediction markets sector is experiencing rapid consolidation, with every major consumer-facing prediction platform moving to own both customer distribution and exchange infrastructure over the past eight months, according to Wall Street broker Bernstein. "Consumer platforms that matter have merged the front and back end of the prediction-market stack," analysts led by Ian Moore said in their Monday report, arguing that businesses once separated across financial trading, crypto and sports betting are now competing within the same market. "Companies that own both consumer distribution and exchange infrastructure are capturing more economics in-house, increasing strategic pressure on rivals," with Bernstein noting that acquisitions may become the fastest way for platforms to obtain licenses, reach new users or add missing infrastructure. Major platforms like DraftKings, Robinhood, and Coinbase have already made strategic acquisitions, with DraftKings acquiring Railbird to launch its DKeX exchange, Robinhood partnering with Susquehanna to build Rothera, and Coinbase acquiring The Clearing Company shortly after launching event contracts.
The economics are already shifting as companies retain revenue previously flowing to third-party platforms. Companies that own their exchanges are retaining revenue that previously flowed to third-party platforms, with Robinhood routing its highest-volume World Cup contracts through Rothera rather than Kalshi, while DraftKings shifted prediction market trading from Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Crypto.com infrastructure onto DKeX in late June. Coinbase has reached roughly $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue, Robinhood has traded more than 16 billion event contracts this year, and DraftKings disclosed annualized consumer prediction volume approaching $3.4 billion. Despite the sector's rapid growth, prediction markets continue to face significant regulatory and legal uncertainty, with state gaming regulators arguing that sports event contracts amount to unlicensed sports betting and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over the products.
