The White House appears increasingly hopeful about resolving the remaining obstacles to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), with White House crypto chief advisor Patrick Witt declaring "Big week ahead for Clarity. The work has continued in earnest behind the scenes since the Banking markup. The issue set has narrowed, and good faith offers are being put forward to close the gap. But time is of the essence." This optimism comes as market odds have shifted to 50-50 on the bill's passage by the end of the year, according to the latest data. The Wednesday White House meeting between administration officials and law enforcement groups represents the latest attempt to address critical concerns, with developer protections under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) emerging as the primary focus. As Witt noted, "Clarity for market structure, Parity for tax. Great work."
The upcoming White House meeting on Wednesday, June 10th, will specifically address concerns raised by law enforcement officials about developer protections under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), according to former FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett citing people familiar with the matter. BRCA seeks legal relief for developers of non-custodial platforms to avoid categorizing them as money transmitters, ensuring that any wrongdoing targets third-party crime perpetrators rather than innocent builders. Over 160 law enforcement officials recently backed the bill, but the compromise on developer protections remains unclear. The issue of how to ensure decentralized venues aren't used for illicit finances continues to be a key challenge, with analysts noting that previous enforcement actions against founders like Tornado Cash's Roman Storm helped warn others from creating systems that enable sanctioned entities to move capital.
Over 200 crypto organizations and firms, including industry lobby groups Stand With Crypto, have urged Senate leadership to schedule a floor vote for the bill, marking a significant escalation in industry pressure for legislative action. White House crypto chief advisor Patrick Witt's comments about the "big week ahead" likely referred to the developer protection meeting, indicating direct White House involvement in the legislative process. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks has announced she will not support the Clarity Act on the Senate floor unless negotiators reach agreement on ethics provisions and other outstanding issues, marking a significant development in the legislative process. Alsobrooks characterized her committee vote advancing the bill as support for continued bipartisan negotiations, not unconditional support for final passage, stating 'We're almost there, but not quite there yet.' The Maryland Democrat's stance represents a crucial test for the bill's momentum, as her opposition could derail the legislation despite the 50-50 passage odds that current market data shows.
A floor vote would need roughly 60 votes to clear cloture, with Galaxy's odds standing slightly higher than those on Polymarket, where bettors see only a 47% chance the Clarity Act will pass in 2026, representing an 11% drop from the odds recorded the previous day. According to Galaxy's analysis, Galaxy's odds stand slightly higher than those on Polymarket, where bettors see only a 47% chance the Clarity Act will pass in 2026, representing an 11% drop from the odds recorded the previous day. Thorn noted that a credible commitment from Majority Leader John Thune to schedule July floor time would likely push the odds back up, but absent that commitment, the path narrows to a riskier September attempt. JPMorgan has warned the bill was running out of time, placing the chance of passage this year at less than 50%, while Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said some Washington insiders put the odds between 5% and 30%. The stablecoin yield debate has become a politically charged issue and key hurdle for approval, with bank lobbying groups, including the American Bankers Association, reportedly sending more than 8,000 letters to Senate offices criticizing compromises.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune would likely need to schedule floor time in July for the Clarity Act process to fit before the August recess, according to Galaxy's analysis. Thorn emphasized that "Anything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess." The CLARITY Act still needs Senate floor debate, an amendment process, and alignment between different Senate committee texts, creating multiple procedural hurdles. The real challenge lies in the ethics provision discussions, which remain a key contention given Trump's family's interest in the sector. The market's shift to 50-50 odds reflects the critical nature of the upcoming developer protection negotiations, with time being of the essence as Witt emphasized. Galaxy said it would raise its odds again if Senate leaders commit to a July vote and lawmakers settle the remaining policy issues, with the realistic outcomes being three: the bill passes this summer in a form built on the existing yield compromise, the bill slips past the August recess and dies for the year, or it limps into a post-election lame-duck session with diminished odds.**
