According to latest analysis from Ash Crypto, Ethereum (ETH) has reached what may be the most oversold condition in its entire history, with the monthly RSI falling below readings recorded at both the 2018 and 2022 bear market bottoms. ETH is currently trading at $1,797, up 10% in the latest session after bouncing from a swing low of $1,507 and pushing toward $1,800 before consolidating above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The cryptocurrency has broken out of a symmetrical triangle that had been forming since the June 6 low near $1,510, with the breakout pushing price above the $1,700 region and back above the $1,650-$1,700 resistance zone. The technical structure is coiling with near-term support at $1,665 and $1,640, while resistance is stacking at $1,690, $1,715, and $1,740. However, ETH remains pinned below its 200-week simple moving average, a level that historically separates accumulation floors from genuine bull market re-entries.
The recent recovery is driven by the reported U.S.-Iran peace deal that has eased geopolitical tensions and reduced inflation concerns across risk assets. According to crypto.news market data, Ethereum surged more than 10% on June 15, reaching an intraday high above $1,800 before settling near $1,797 at Tuesday's press time. Before the latest rebound, ETH had dropped roughly 26% from early June levels near $2,050 to a local low around $1,507 as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran fueled inflation fears. The sharp rebound followed reports that the United States and Iran had reached a framework peace agreement that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude fell 2.2% below $82 per barrel on Tuesday while WTI dropped 2.5% to under $79 as traders priced in the possibility of uninterrupted oil flows from the Persian Gulf. The improvement in market sentiment extended beyond oil markets, with Bitcoin recovering above $66,000 and Ethereum attracting renewed buying interest after weeks of pressure.
Additional support came from significant whale activity, with Lookonchain reporting that a large over-the-counter investor sold 29,000 staked ETH worth roughly $53.1 million on June 16, locking in a $6.4 million profit after purchasing the tokens during last week's market dip. While the transaction represented profit-taking, it also highlighted the scale of accumulation that occurred near recent lows. The recent rally also appears to have trapped traders positioned for further downside, creating conditions for a short squeeze as bearish bets were unwound. Derivatives data suggests this dynamic is unfolding in real time, with CryptoQuant reporting that Ethereum open interest jumped 7.7% on June 15, marking its largest daily increase in a month. The surge in open interest alongside price appreciation typically signals that new positions are entering the market, adding weight to the debate over what is fueling ETH's breakout. BitMine has continued its accumulation strategy, purchasing 20,000 ETH worth approximately $35.85 million from FalconX, while geministar.eth bought 11,142 ETH worth about $19.94 million, bringing its two-day total to 32,278 ETH worth approximately $57 million. A wallet linked to Arthur Hayes also added 1,400 ETH worth about $2.51 million.
Two key signals suggest Ethereum's move may be more than just a short-term squeeze. According to Lookonchain, BitMine bought 76,881 ETH worth roughly $135.6 million last week, bringing its total holdings to 5.62 million ETH, valued at nearly $9.9 billion. What's particularly notable is that the firm's average acquisition cost is around $3,450 per ETH, meaning at current prices the position remains significantly underwater on paper yet BitMine continues to add to its holdings. Ethereum climbed 3.16% on June 15, marking its strongest daily gain in nearly two weeks and outperforming Bitcoin during the risk-on move. Taken together, Ethereum reclaiming a key level, outperforming Bitcoin, and buying from BitMine all support the bullish case. In this setup, the move back above $1,800 looks like more than just a short-squeeze reaction, suggesting traders are starting to position for a larger move higher, with growing FOMO in the derivatives market adding fuel to the rally.
Derivatives data suggests volatility could increase if Ethereum approaches key resistance levels, with CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps showing a dense concentration of short liquidations between $1,840 and $1,860, with another major liquidity pocket sitting near $1,900. A move into those zones could force leveraged bears to cover positions and accelerate upside momentum. However, several risks remain, as while President Trump has said the U.S.-Iran peace agreement has already been signed, neither side has released the full text of the memorandum of understanding. Shipping companies continue to await greater clarity before resuming normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and any disruption to the implementation process could lift oil prices and renew inflation concerns ahead of upcoming Federal Reserve decisions. The focus now shifts to spot demand, as if buyers in the spot market fail to step in and support the move, Ethereum's breakout above $1,800 could remain largely leverage-driven, raising the possibility of a bull trap. Technical analysis shows mixed signals, with the MACD histogram positive at about 27.77 and the MACD line crossing above the signal line, but both lines remain below the zero line, indicating the wider trend has not fully turned bullish.
