Ethereum is currently trading at $2,277 on Friday, holding just above the crucial 50-day EMA at $2,274 but below the 100-day EMA at $2,338, maintaining a neutral-to-capped near-term stance. According to latest technical analysis, the cryptocurrency faces immediate resistance at the 100-day EMA around $2,338, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest cycle at roughly $2,380. A daily close above this resistance band would be needed to reopen the path toward the $2,575 region, where the 200-day EMA and the 50% retracement converge into a stronger medium-term barrier. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 50-day EMA near $2,275, with deeper pullback exposing the 23.6% retracement at $2,138 and the nearby trendline break area at $2,130, ahead of a more substantial structural floor around the $1,748 swing low. The cryptocurrency market turned choppy on May 15, with Bitcoin holding firm above the US$81,000 level after rebounding from recent weakness, supported by resilient institutional demand and optimism surrounding the proposed US CLARITY Act aimed at providing clearer crypto regulations.
Jane Street, the same firm behind the daily 10 AM Bitcoin dump and sued for insider trading in the $40 billion LUNA collapse, has now exposed their next target: Ethereum. According to latest data, the firm has executed a massive, coordinated exit from Bitcoin while simultaneously rotating into Ethereum. Over $800 million in Bitcoin exposure has been erased in just 90 days, with Bitcoin miners IREN, Cipher, TeraWulf, and Core Scientific all cutting positions. Simultaneously, Jane Street increased their Galaxy Digital position from 17,000 shares to 1.5 million shares - an 8,700% increase in one quarter. The firm has also added $82 million in new Ethereum ETF exposure, targeting the cryptocurrency as an easier market to manipulate given its smaller size and less developed ETF infrastructure.
Ethereum continues to struggle below $2,400 due to large sell walls created by major whale holders on Binance and Coinbase. The first key level for a recovery signal remains a clean break above $2,323, which could open the way toward $2,380 and then $2,400. Until these levels are cleared, selling pressure keeps the short-term trend under pressure, and Ethereum remains vulnerable to further declines if support near $2,220-$2,230 fails. The market awaits confirmation that buyers can absorb whale sell pressure to signal a stronger recovery. Over the past week, Ethereum's exchange reserves have been on the rise, climbing by 623K ETH from May 5 to 13, indicating increased selling pressure as ETH is being transferred to centralized exchanges for potential sale.
Ethereum spot ETFs have posted cumulative net outflows of approximately $183.81 million over the past three sessions, marking a sharp reversal from the prior week's $66.9 million inflow. This represents a significant institutional selling pressure as ETH ETFs have experienced increased outflows, with $130.6 million in net outflows recorded over the past two days according to CoinGlass ETF data. The ETF outflows have become the cleanest available proxy for institutional conviction, with a swing of this magnitude during weak price action suggesting the professional bid is retreating rather than buying the dip. This institutional selling aligns with broader market trends, as the $635 million single-day outflow recorded across Bitcoin ETFs in the same window indicates a coordinated risk-off posture across the entire asset class. The 30-day moving average of ETH's Net Taker Volume has turned negative for the first time since early March, signaling a shift towards bearish sentiment in ETH futures, while ETH's funding rates have experienced their longest positive streak since January, suggesting renewed interest from long traders.
According to HODL Waves data, Ethereum's short-term holders - defined as those holding for one to three months - have steadily reduced their share of supply since April 21. That cohort's slice of total supply has fallen to a year-to-date low of 4.8%, down from above 6% as recently as late April and dramatically down from a striking 16% back in mid-January. The significance of this distribution is not subtle, as short-term holders typically command a meaningful portion of the circulating token base and are historically the fastest segment of the market to react to shifting conditions. When this group distributes as persistently and steadily as it has been, that selling tends to drag near-term price action down with it. The collapse from 16% in January to just 4.8% now is emphatically not statistical noise - it is a steady, deliberate, months-long exit executed by the single most reactive and price-sensitive segment of the entire Ethereum market, removing a layer of support that the coin badly needs right now.
Ethereum's chart structure shows mixed signals with the cryptocurrency trading below its 20-day SMA near $2,313 and far below the 200-day SMA at roughly $2,639, though it is clinging just above the 50-day SMA near $2,245. The RSI in the daily chart at 47 and the negative MACD on the same chart hint at fading bullish momentum after the recent recovery. Immediate overhead resistance sits at the 100-day EMA around $2,338, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest cycle at roughly $2,380. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 50-day EMA near $2,275, with a deeper pullback exposing the 23.6% retracement at $2,138 and the nearby trendline break area at $2,130. The Chaikin Money Flow has spent most of the past month below zero, sitting near -0.10 at last read after collapsing from highs around 0.60 on April 13, with sustained negative CMF meaning capital has been steadily leaving ETH rather than entering it. Weekly signals collectively imply less than a 20% probability of an upward break in the days immediately ahead.
Despite current bearish momentum, the bull case remains structurally sound though slower-burning in nature. The standout development is JPMorgan Chase filing with the SEC on May 13 to launch JLTXX, a fully regulated money market fund tokenized on Ethereum, built specifically to meet stablecoin reserve compliance requirements and backed exclusively by short-term Treasuries and collateralized repos. This represents a blue-chip financial institution choosing Ethereum's rails for a regulated financial product, a genuine, durable adoption signal even if it does nothing for price this week. Supporting this theme, Ethereum's exchange reserves have fallen to roughly 14.9 million ETH, meaning less coin is sitting available to sell, while derivatives Open Interest has recovered to about $15.7 billion, a sign of returning engagement. The Ethereum Foundation's rollout of Clear Signing to eliminate blind signatures adds a quiet security tailwind to the network's longer-term investment case. And the longer-horizon forecast models are notably aggressive, with one set projecting ETH up 58.6% on a three-month view toward roughly $3,653 and up 172% on a six-month horizon. These are speculative targets rather than promises, but they frame the central tension of the structural argument cleanly: the network itself is being adopted and built upon even as the token is being actively sold.
