Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-week moving average after three consecutive heavy ETF redemption sessions, marking a significant technical breakdown that traders cannot ignore. According to CryptoSlate, Bitcoin traded at $60,042 on June 29, down 18.25% over the past 30 days and 6.1% over the past 7 days. The cryptocurrency is now sitting roughly $2,555 below Newhedge's 200-week weighted moving average of $62,383, a level that historically compresses years of price behavior into a single slow-moving reference. The 200-week weighted average has been a familiar cycle marker that Bitcoin has historically spent limited time below during severe drawdowns, making this breakdown particularly significant for long-term holders.
The technical breakdown coincides with significant institutional selling pressure, as Farside Investors' Bitcoin ETF table showed net outflows of $444.5 million on June 26. Alternative.me's Crypto Fear and Greed Index showed a live reading of 12, or Extreme Fear, when captured on June 29, while CryptoSlate's crypto sentiment analysis sits at a slightly negative 38/100. The flow backdrop makes the current move harder to dismiss as a pure chart event, with continued ETF redemptions running counter to evidence that sellers are exhausting themselves and buyers are absorbing supply near current levels.
El Salvador's Bitcoin reserve has grown from 5,968 BTC at the start of the IMF program in December 2024 to 7,699 BTC as of June 28, 2026, according to latest data. However, the IMF's Extended Fund Facility includes a zero ceiling on voluntary BTC accumulation by the public sector, creating tension between the government's public messaging and loan conditions. As reported by CryptoSlate, the reserve has grown by approximately 1,700 BTC since the program's formalization, which sits awkwardly against a letter of intent where El Salvador's central bank and finance ministry stated no additional BTC had been purchased post-agreement. At current prices, El Salvador's 7,699 BTC reserve represents approximately $460.7 million, representing a significant unrealized loss from its peak valuation near $800 million in early 2026.
The IMF's explanation, confirmed by spokesperson Julie Kozack, is that increases in the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fund reflect consolidation of BTC across various government-owned wallets, notably from a BANDESAL cold-storage address, rather than net new market purchases by the public sector. The total BTC controlled across all government wallets, the IMF says, has remained unchanged. The core ambiguity lies in El Salvador's ability to maintain a visible Bitcoin reserve in the public eye while the IMF record focuses on overall public-sector Bitcoin stock and program conditions. A reserve can appear larger in one public-facing wallet or tracker without necessarily violating a no-accumulation commitment, provided the underlying public-sector stock remains unchanged. In a March 2025 press briefing, the IMF said reforms had made Bitcoin acceptance voluntary in the private sector, made taxes payable only in US dollars, and committed the government to avoiding the accumulation of Bitcoin at the overall public-sector level.
China's central bank provided Bitcoin traders with a new liquidity gauge on June 29 by opening an overnight reverse repo channel worth 300 billion yuan, or roughly $44.1 billion. The People's Bank of China conducted the operation alongside 157.5 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repos at a 1.40% rate. While this injection gives traders a new daily money-market gauge, it has not yet flipped Bitcoin's risk backdrop from fragile near $60,000. The PBOC pre-announced it would add overnight reverse repo operations on June 29 and June 30 to better meet short-term liquidity needs in the banking system. Future operations near or above 300 billion yuan would carry more weight than a quick retreat, while a clearer overnight rate relative to the seven-day policy rate would help traders separate routine plumbing from stronger funding support.
