Dogecoin is currently trading at $0.08025, representing a 7.6% decline on the weekly chart and falling below the $0.081 support level identified by crypto analyst Ali Martinez. According to TradingView data, the token hit a daily low of $0.07982 and session high of $0.08094 on October 17th. The decline follows a substantially different September setup where DOGE had returned to $0.10 after a 25% weekly rally by September 23rd, with the subsequent retreat representing a 19.8% decline from that round reference. The $0.0800 level has emerged as a critical support level, with the token hitting daily lows around this level and the relative strength index standing at about 39, indicating the market is not oversold.
Despite the price decline, large holders demonstrated significant accumulation activity with whale purchases of approximately 600 million DOGE between October 12th and October 16th, according to Santiment data cited by analyst Ali Martinez. At the current price of $0.08025, this quantity represents approximately $48.2 million worth of tokens. Using a Glassnode UTXO Realized Price Distribution chart, Martinez identified that roughly 36 billion DOGE had previously traded around the $0.081 level, creating a major cost-basis concentration zone. The analyst's assessment centers on whether buyers can defend this area where on-chain data shows a large concentration of previously traded coins, though he notes that this does not guarantee buyers will defend the level.
The latest technical analysis shows Dogecoin trading below its $0.08847 Bollinger Band midpoint on the daily chart, with the token approximately 9.3% below the midpoint and 3.7% above the lower boundary at $0.07736. TradingView's Awesome Oscillator reading is negative at approximately minus 0.00803, with the latest histogram bars below zero. The weekly chart places DOGE below all displayed simple moving averages, with the 20-week average at $0.08163, followed by the 50-week at $0.10188, 100-week at $0.17248, and 200-week at $0.13765. CoinGlass's three-day liquidation heatmap shows especially prominent bands around $0.0844 above the market and $0.0773 below it, with other visible concentrations around $0.083–$0.0836 and $0.078–$0.079.
Analyst Ali Martinez's recovery scenario remains conditional on DOGE holding the $0.081 level, with potential profit-taking areas identified at $0.16–$0.17 where cost-basis concentrations of roughly 12 billion DOGE near $0.16 and another 14 billion DOGE near $0.17 exist. Measured from the current $0.08025 price, reaching Martinez's earlier $0.087 recovery level would require approximately 8.4% gains, while reaching $0.094 would require 17.1% gains. The analyst's longer-range scenario requires gains of approximately 99% and 112% respectively to reach these targets. His daily chart showed a TD Sequential buy signal near the $0.081 level, though the signal itself does not establish that a recovery has started, with the indicator using sequences of price movements to identify potential trend exhaustion.
Dogecoin ETFs experienced significant outflows throughout October, with $540,000 leaving the funds in just two days as reported by AMBCrypto. From October 1st to 9th, spot DOGE ETFs recorded no inflows at all, followed by outflows of close to $400,000 on October 12th and another $138,570 the next day. Total net assets decreased from approximately $17 million at the start of the month to $14.44 million. This marked a sharp reversal from the three-week inflow streak that ETFs had been experiencing previously. The fund's DOGE holding stood at roughly $725,870 on October 7th, representing 0.16% of daily turnover of $457.96 million. Today marks the final trading day of the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF on NYSE Arca, with the fund's DOGE holding being converted into cash.
