Bitcoin traded near $62.8K on Friday, hitting its lowest level since August 3 as weak liquidity and subdued institutional demand offset softer U.S. inflation data. According to The Economic Times, the cryptocurrency was down 1.31% in the past 24 hours, with the global crypto market capitalization edging down 1.29% to $2.16 trillion. In the past week, Bitcoin and Ethereum were down 2.62% and 1.81% respectively, while major altcoins including BNB, Solana, Tron, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin, and Cardano fell up to 1.89%. Prateek Gupta, Head of Business at Mudrex, noted that daily spot Bitcoin volume fell to $1.19 billion, its lowest since 2019, versus a $14.7 billion peak in February, highlighting the significant deterioration in market liquidity. Spot bitcoin ETFs experienced back-to-back outflows for the first time since late July, with $192 million exiting the products, as reported by SoSoValue.
The U.S. CPI rose just 0.1% for the month in July, with annual inflation slowing to 3.4% from 3.5% in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Aug. 12. Core CPI, which removes volatile food and energy prices, eased to 2.5% annually, marking its lowest level since February. Cheaper gasoline, down 2.9% on the month, did much of the work in cooling the overall inflation rate. Thursday's PPI print came in cold: flat month-over-month against an expected 0.2% gain, with the annual rate at 4.7%, while jobless claims ticked up to 209,000 from a revised 200,000. Reuters reported that futures markets lowered the implied probability of a September rate hike to roughly 40% from 54% before the release, with the in-line inflation data removing a tail risk. However, market odds of a September rate hike fell to 32-35% after the latest economic data was released, according to AMBCrypto, representing the lowest probability of a September rate hike since the 17th of July, with odds now half of what they were on the 27th. CoinEx Chief Analyst Jeff Ko noted that the muted market reaction suggests the CPI print was largely priced in, with traders having already accounted for the inflation slowdown before the official report arrived.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a second straight day of net outflows, $131.1M on August 13 following $61.1M the day before, with Fidelity's FBTC, ARKB, and GBTC among the biggest bleeders, as reported by Crypto.news. Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $200 million in outflows this week, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording roughly $125.4 million in net outflows on August 13, extending the previous session's outflows, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw a modest $6.5 million net inflow. As per The Economic Times, Vikas Gupta, Country Manager – India, Bybit, shared that institutional flows have become inconsistent, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing a $144.6M outflow on Aug. 10, followed by only a $7.8M inflow on Aug. 11. Options positioning has also skewed toward the defensive, with implied volatility clustering around $60,000 downside strikes ahead of the August expiry, a sign that traders are hedging rather than chasing, according to Crypto.news.
Bitcoin's daily chart shows the price consolidating below the 20-day simple moving average at approximately $64,079, with the asset also below the 100-day and 200-day averages near $67,285 and $69,670 respectively. Aroon readings add to the bearish setup, with Aroon Down at 71.43% compared to Aroon Up at 14.29%, showing that recent lows carry more influence than recent highs. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin trades below the Bollinger Band midpoint at $63,885, with the lower band near $63,064 providing immediate support and the upper band around $64,705 overlapping with the first major recovery target. The 4-hour relative strength index stands at 43.85, pointing to weak momentum but having not reached oversold territory. TradingView's technical panel reads a flat-out sell signal with RSI at 47, and price sitting both the 10-day EMA ($63,948) and SMA ($64,198) below. Immediate support sits near $62,250; a break there opens the door toward $61,000-$60,000, while reclaiming $64,400 would flip momentum and put the $66,000 resistance zone back in play. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows identified $62,000–$62,500 as the next important support range if the current pullback extends, with CryptoQuant contributor Rain saying approximately 45%–46% of Bitcoin's supply is currently held at an unrealized loss, describing the reading as a sign of advanced holder stress.
Nischal Shetty, Founder of WazirX, identified 0.0134–0.0132 as the immediate downside zone to monitor, with a sustained loss making 0.0130–0.0124 the next notable support region. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus, noted immediate support lies around 62,800-63,000, followed by $62,000, while resistance is visible near 63,900-64,000, with the 65,000-66,000 regions remaining the stronger ceiling for the current recovery. Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst at Delta Exchange, said crypto markets remain cautious despite a more supportive macro backdrop, with Bitcoin trading near $63.5K and Ethereum around $1.89K. Avinash Shekhar from Pi42 noted that Bitcoin continues to consolidate around the $63,000 to $64,000 zone, but the sharp decline in spot trading volumes and continued ETF outflows show that conviction remains limited. CoinSwitch Markets Desk noted that Bitcoin remains stuck just below $64,000, trading around 63,600–63,900 and struggling to hold above the level despite a softer-than-expected July PPI print. The bull case scenario involves ETF outflows stabilizing, BTC reclaiming the mid-$64k zone, and short covering driving a push toward $66,000, while the bear case sees a decisive break below $62,250 accelerating toward $60,000, especially if large custodial transfers add fresh supply pressure.
