Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal whether the US central bank would raise interest rates or keep them unchanged at its October 27-28 policy meeting, as reported by The Economic Times. Speaking at the 2026 IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on Friday, Warsh said he does not make decisions before scheduled deliberations. Warsh reiterated the Fed's commitment to maintaining price stability but declined to provide forward guidance on upcoming policy decisions, emphasizing that each meeting would be assessed on its own merits. Warsh's remarks offered little clarity on the Fed's next move as markets largely expect policymakers to hold short-term interest rates steady at the upcoming meeting. The Fed Chair also refrained from indicating the likely direction of monetary policy for the remainder of the year, maintaining the central bank's cautious stance on policy signals.
U.S. inflation data will test the interest-rate outlook this week ahead of the Federal Reserve's October meeting, according to reports from Crypto Week Ahead and BTSE Blog. Investors currently expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged with an increase anticipated in December. The week begins with U.S. CPI MoM for September estimated at 0.6% (previous 0.4%) and CPI YoY at 3.6% (previous 3.4%), as reported by Crypto Week Ahead. U.S. Core CPI MoM is estimated at 0.2% (previous 0.3%) and Core CPI YoY at 2.5% (previous 2.4%). U.S. PPI MoM is estimated at 0.5% (previous 0.4%) and PPI YoY at 5.3% (previous 5.4%). U.S. Retail Sales MoM for September is estimated at 0.3% (previous 1.2%), while Initial Jobless Claims for the period ending October 10 are estimated at 195K (previous 197K). CPI and PPI are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on October 14 and 15 respectively, according to the Federal Reserve Board calendar. According to recent FOMC meeting minutes, policymakers remain focused on persistent inflation, with several members leaning toward another policy tightening before year-end as they evaluate incoming macro metrics. Thursday's wholesale price figures and retail data will offer further clarity on inflationary trajectories, with an upside surprise potentially cementing prolonged high rates while softer figures might provide relief.
Bitcoin has slipped to $81,661, down 2.56% over the past 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets, as reported by BTSE Blog. Bitcoin is down 1.89% so far in October, marking a challenging start to what historically has been one of Bitcoin's strongest months. The cryptocurrency remains about 35% below its all-time high of $126,080, set on October 6, 2025. Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index hovering at 57 as traders closely monitor upcoming macroeconomic developments. The market entered the weekend with a risk-on but fragile backdrop as U.S. stocks recovered Friday, but oil remained above $100 a barrel and Treasury yields near multi-decade highs around 5.24%–5.26%. For crypto, the combination of elevated oil prices and inflation data creates a headwind, with escalating US-Iran tension potentially disrupting Middle East energy flows, pushing oil and inflation expectations higher, and keeping Treasury yields elevated. October 14 saw Bitcoin drop and retest $80K after hotter CPI data, bringing weekly losses to nearly 5%. Bitcoin traded at $82,859 as of writing, down almost 5% in the last week, remaining below the $85,000 threshold on thin trading volumes. Stablecoin supply fell $856 million and DEX spot volume dropped 19% last week, according to Lookonchain's weekly data, hinting at weaker crypto demand.
FOMC Polymarket betting odds show a 73% chance of an October Fed hold, against 27% for a 25-basis-point hike, according to 99Bitcoins. The odds come from Polymarket's October contract, which has traded more than $41.5 million in volume. An earlier snapshot taken at 07:53 UTC on October 15 showed a 75.5% chance of a hold, and hotter inflation data has arrived since. The Kobeissi Letter reported that September PPI inflation rose to 6.3% against expectations of 5.3%, with core PPI at 5.0% against 4.4%. Rate-hike odds were climbing on the news, with the contract tracking the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared with its level before the October meeting. The next FOMC meeting is on October 27, with investors seeing about a 30% chance that the committee will raise rates then. Markets are pricing in roughly two more hikes by January and another by April. A separate Polymarket market prices a 97% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026. A December contract points to an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on December 9, against 19% for no change. A separate Polymarket market prices a 97% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026. The Federal Reserve's September minutes describe market pricing and surveys that assigned considerable probability to at least 25 basis points of firming by year-end, describing persistent inflation, a resilient economy and uncertainty about the outlook.
Third-quarter bank earnings will provide a separate check on lending, trading activity and investor demand, as reported by Crypto Week Ahead. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs are expected to report early in the week, with their comments on consumer spending and credit quality may shape risk sentiment. BlackRock (BLK) reports pre-market on October 14 at $14.24, while BNY reports pre-market on October 15 at $2.27. U.S. bond markets are closed for Columbus Day on October 12, with equity markets remaining open. China CPI YoY for September is estimated at 1.0% (previous 0.8%) and PPI YoY at 4.5% (previous 3.8%). Eurozone CPI YoY Final for September is estimated at 3.8% (previous 3.2%). U.K. GDP MoM for August is estimated at -0.1% (previous 0.4%). OPEC's monthly report lands Tuesday, October 13, with oil trading near $100 per barrel on Middle East supply risks. September existing home sales also arrive Tuesday. Looking ahead, Thursday's producer price index will offer another read on how much inflation remains in the pipeline, with a hot number potentially adding fuel to the risk-off mood.
October 15 marks several significant crypto events, according to Crypto Week Ahead. ArbitrumDAO's proposed USDG initiative is scheduled to enter an offchain vote, with voting targeted to run through October 22. Ethereum developers will hold All Core Devs Consensus call No. 189 on October 15 at 10 a.m., covering Glamsterdam and Hegotá upgrades. Balancer partners have until October 16 at 11:59 a.m. to request extensions for specific v3 pools through November 30 under the protocol's approved wind-down plan. The Monetary Authority of Singapore's consultation on stablecoin regulation closes on October 16 at 11:59 a.m.. Governance votes include Balancer voting on an independent, self-funded fork (voting ends October 13), Compound voting to withdraw and bridge wETH reserves (voting ends October 13), and Gitcoin voting to lower Snapshot quorum from 2.5 million GTC to 1.5 million GTC (voting ends October 15). Traders will also watch the AI trade and whether it continues to unwind, with analysts at 10x Research preferring to hold bitcoin while that unwind plays out, but only as long as BTC holds above $78,000, and preferring to "use ether as a hedge for BTC long positions."
October 15 features significant token unlocks and launches, as reported by Crypto Week Ahead. Starknet unlocks 3.37% of its circulating supply worth around $13.2 million. Connex (CONX) unlocks 1.39% of its circulating supply worth $12.18 million. Arbitrum unlocks 1.56% of its circulating supply worth $18.07 million on October 16. Cronos unlocks 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $73.08 million on October 17. Sonic's final claim deadline for its Season 1 and Season 2 airdrops occurs on October 15. Paradigm Frontiers conference runs October 12-14 in San Francisco, followed by Pantera Blockchain Summit on October 15, Ledger Op3n in Paris on October 15, BGIN Block 15 in Washington D.C. on October 15-16, and EDCON in Kuala Lumpur on October 17-18.
