Ethereum has broken through a multi-year descending trendline as futures open interest spiked to $19.8 billion on July 14, marking the highest reading since June 3 when a market-wide deleveraging event reset positioning. ETH traded near $1,928, up 5.2% in the last 24 hours, representing a significant breakout from the resistance that had capped prices since the all-time high. The surge in open interest indicates traders are returning to ETH derivatives with conviction, with the metric having collapsed to approximately $15.5 billion in late June before its sharp recovery. Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,850 with bulls maintaining focus on the critical 100-day EMA near $1,938 as the next major resistance level.
Bulls are waiting for a sustained close above the 100-day EMA near $1,938 to initiate a significant rally, with the technical structure remaining bullish as ETH holds above the 50-day EMA near $1,818. According to latest analysis, a convincing daily close above $1,938 puts $2,000 firmly back on the radar, while the MACD crossing into positive territory supports the bullish outlook. The technical picture shows support at $1,818 and resistance between $1,875 and $1,900, with the 100-day EMA serving as the real gatekeeper for the next major move. If buyers maintain elevated volume and exchange outflows continue, the next targets become $2,000 and then the 200-day EMA near $2,180, representing a potential 16% move from current levels.
The current market setup shows strong fundamental support with exchange outflows continuing to reduce available sell-side supply while staking keeps locking away circulating ETH. Futures volume has jumped sharply, and funding rates remain positive, indicating buyers are still willing to pay for exposure despite the market not reaching full euphoria. The long-to-short ratio sits close to 0.96, keeping positioning near balance instead of leaning heavily in one direction. Trading activity has picked up with 24-hour volume hovering around $7.0 billion, showing fresh money joining the move rather than traders simply passing positions around. Institutional interest has continued to build, adding another layer of support beneath the chart, while the tight intraday range between $1,845 and $1,865 suggests markets are positioning for a potential breakout.
The base case scenario suggests Ethereum could spend another week chopping between $1,818 and $1,938 while traders await fresh macro catalysts, with the base case being less dramatic than the bullish projection. However, if ETH loses $1,818 on a daily close and exchange outflows reverse, this rally could fizzle out, exposing the $1,700 area once again. The positive MACD crossover and improving momentum still favor buyers, but as always, the chart gets the final vote, not opinions. The analysis emphasizes that charts reward patience more than enthusiasm, with traders advised to watch the daily close rather than every five-minute candle, as the technical structure remains straightforward with defined risk levels clearly established.
In crypto markets, open interest matters more significantly due to perpetual futures dominance and structural differences. According to CryptoQuant data, perp volume reached approximately ₹51.8 lakh crore ($61.8 trillion) in 2025, representing a 29% year-on-year increase. Offshore perpetual volume alone grew from around ₹22.4 lakh crore ($28 trillion) in 2023 to more than ₹75.6 lakh crore ($90 trillion) in 2025. The October 10, 2025 event serves as a reference case, where approximately ₹157 crore ($19 billion) of positions were liquidated across the market in a single episode. The weekly chart shows why the current level matters so much, with an ascending trendline drawn from the June 2022 bottom holding near $1,600 once again, while the weekly trendline and support around $1,754–$1,600 add structural bullish conviction.
