Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience, surpassing the yearly moving average for the first time since November 2025 with an 8.10% rally from Wednesday's low of $75,064. According to AMBCrypto, this represents a major victory for bulls as Bitcoin has been able to push higher despite facing multiple headwinds including the Federal Reserve's rate hike, Senate rejection of the CLARITY Act, and ongoing liquidity tightening conditions. The yearly moving average was at $80,701 at the time of writing, with Bitcoin's recovery from its $60K lows in July and latest resurgence from $76K helping drive the cryptocurrency back above the 365-day moving average. Since February, long-term holder total supply has steadily trended higher while short-term holder supply has been in decline, as noted by crypto analyst Funding Vest on CryptoQuant, indicating that weak hands are being shaken out while higher conviction holders continue accumulating. On Tuesday, Bitcoin fell to a local low of $74,967 ahead of the impending rate hike news from the U.S. Federal Reserve, but since that low, Bitcoin has rebounded by 9.21% in under a week, showing the cryptocurrency's ability to recover quickly from bearish sentiment.
The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate increase since 2023, raising the benchmark interest rate to a target range of 3.75%-4% on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. According to the official post-meeting statement, the decision was unanimous with all 12 voting members supporting the move, reflecting broad internal consensus behind Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish inflation stance. This rate level marks a significant shift from the previous range of 0%-0.25%, with Bitcoin demonstrating remarkable resilience after initially declining. Within one hour of the announcement, Bitcoin dropped as low as $75,355 before recovering to around $75,813, showing the cryptocurrency's ability to stabilize quickly. The leading cryptocurrency had dipped to a low of $74,800 in the hour preceding the announcement before recovering sharply as traders interpreted the hike as largely priced in. Bitcoin climbed from about $75,350 pre-decision to as high as $76,500, settling near $76,138 after the markets closed in the US. Markets are pricing in three further quarter-point increases by April 2027, which would take the federal funds rate to 4.50%–4.75%, but as Sygnum Bank notes, rising interest rates and bond yields are not always bearish for Bitcoin if they signal debasement risk and sovereign counterparty risk.
Market experts suggest Bitcoin has moved into a recovery phase after a highly volatile Federal Reserve session, with technical indicators pointing to potential bullish momentum. For the first time since November 2025, Bitcoin has closed a weekly candle above its 52-week moving average, with the previous bullish crossover occurring in March 2023, triggering the bull run that went from $28k to $126k. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Head of Global Macro, wrote that a new 4-year cycle could be underway, with the crypto winter ending and inflation serving as a trigger for scarce assets like Bitcoin. The 2023 cycle bottom tested the 2017-18 highs, and it might be that the 2026 cycle bottom tests the 2021 cycle highs too. Long-term supply was growing, a sign of accumulation from strong hands, while supply in profit was also rising, presenting a threat that profit-taking could impact the upward momentum. There is also the argument that sellers were exhausted and could only force a pullback as deep as $76k last week, with a breakout past the $82.3k high from earlier in September potentially triggering a dense cluster of short liquidations in the $83k-$86k region.
The broader cryptocurrency market showed mixed but largely resilient performance following the Fed's hawkish decision, with total crypto market capitalization rising 2.16% to $2.67 trillion on Friday according to CoinMarketCap. Market sentiment remained in the 'greed' zone with the Fear & Greed Index at 65 according to CoinDCX Research. Among major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin and Cardano gained up to 11.29%, while over the past week, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 1.94% and 1.29% respectively. Ethereum traded at $2,490, down 1.2% on the day but off its session lows, while Solana slipped 2.8% to $168, underperforming the sector average. XRP bucked the trend, gaining 3.1% to $2.85 following a favorable court ruling in its ongoing SEC case. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus, noted that Bitcoin remains vulnerable to volatility with spot demand yet to show decisive recovery, emphasizing that this is a market where patience is preferable to aggressive leverage.
The regulatory policy outlook continues to improve after the Senate rejected the CLARITY Act, with the crypto industry receiving more encouraging developments. On Thursday, the Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled its long-awaited innovation exemption for tokenized securities venues, allowing qualifying platforms to facilitate onchain trading of stocks under specified conditions. The failure to advance the legislation delays a statutory framework, but it does not prevent the SEC and CFTC from continuing to provide guidance under existing authority, leaving an important regulatory pathway open. Joel Kruger, Markets Strategist at LMAX Group, noted that if the market has been this resilient when the news flow has been challenging, even a modest improvement in macro, geopolitical or regulatory conditions could provide the catalyst for the next major leg higher. Bitcoin has historically fallen an average of 2.5% in the year's 38th week, recording gains on just four occasions according to Coinglass, but the same seasonality turns positive as we enter the final quarter of the year, with Bitcoin on average going up 77% in Q4 according to CoinDesk data. Seller fatigue appears to be a key factor, with Blockware Intelligence explaining that anybody who was going to sell bitcoin based on events like these has already sold - a sign of incredibly positive medium to long-term outlook.
