Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed the $64,000 support zone after forming a higher low near $62,400, according to latest technical analysis. However, analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of the recovery, with Marx analysts noting that "BTC has clawed back to $64K but nothing behind it." The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $64,300 and bulls are now watching this level as a potential catalyst for a squeeze toward the $67,000-$67,200 region. A TradingView analyst has mapped a BTCUSDT liquidation-map setup with an entry near $63,450, a tightened stop at $62,800, and an aggressive take-profit around $67,450 after analyzing liquidity clusters. The bullish case hinges on bulls defending the $62,800-$63,500 zone to confirm a squeeze toward the higher targets, while a break below this level would turn the rebound into another failed recovery attempt.
Bitcoin's one-week options skew shows a near 25-point premium for puts relative to calls, a sign of the bias for downside bets, according to CoinDesk reports. This puts Bitcoin in a similar position to early February when BTC carved out an interim bottom just above $60,000, a level that held for four months. The U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data due at 8:30 a.m. ET could serve as the trigger for a potential Bitcoin snapback. The core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy costs and is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, is expected to show a 3.4% year-on-year gain for May, up from 3.3% in April and the highest since late 2023, according to FactSet. If the number falls short of estimates, it signals underlying inflation is cooling and would undermine the case for more Fed interest-rate increases. Bitcoin has already rebounded to $61,500 from Wednesday's 20-month low near $59,000, positioning it for potential upside movement if the inflation data surprises to the downside.
Despite the price recovery, derivatives markets are showing significant skepticism about Bitcoin's sustainability. Bitcoin's 24-hour volume jumped 30% to $129.9 billion, while open interest held steady around $108 billion and liquidations rose 41% to $212 million, with longs accounting for $118.4 million of the amount. BTC futures positioning has lightened notably since open interest peaked at 801K BTC on June 4, now standing at 722K BTC. Among the top 25 coins, only BTC, TRX and ETH show positive CVD, while nearly everything else has negative value, indicating that shorts are leading price action marketwide. BTC and ETH 30-day implied volatility indexes remain in recent ranges, signaling calm markets with no rush into options for protection or speculation. In options flow, a trader bought a bull call spread on HYPE, betting on a rally above $100 and as high as $150 by year-end.
Speculative interest is building across the cryptocurrency market, with prediction market Open Interest recently climbing to a record $1.48 billion, according to AMBCrypto reports. This surge in speculative activity comes despite ongoing macro uncertainties, including continued volatility around potential U.S.-Iran peace deal negotiations. The timing has renewed concerns about whether the crypto market could be heading into another major liquidation cascade in Q3. However, Bitcoin's recent recovery has given bulls something to work with again, as traders are now treating the move as a level-by-level test rather than a clean return to euphoria. Analysts remain particularly cautious about Bitcoin's positioning relative to its 200-week SMA near $62.2K, with some warning that a bearish chart pattern could send prices toward $54,000 if the current pattern breaks to the downside.
Bitcoin's annual growth in both Difficulty and Hash Rate has turned negative for the first time since 2021, indicating slowing network activity, as reported by AMBCrypto. Additionally, Coinbase's Bitcoin Premium Index has remained negative for 44 straight days, its longest streak on record, suggesting that U.S. buyers are stepping back and risk appetite is cooling. Despite the recent recovery, the broader market remains soft with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) remaining slightly lower over 24 hours, though smaller outliers like DEXE and BEAT jumped 8% and 5% respectively. The recent recovery has made it harder to stay aggressively bearish, as Bitcoin formed a higher low around $62,400 and reclaimed the failed support area. However, underlying demand remains weak according to on-chain data, with spot demand and broader liquidity conditions showing concerning trends. The bullish case depends on whether Bitcoin can hold the reclaimed $63,500 area and turn the relief bounce into a sustained squeeze toward the $67,000-$67,200 region.
