Minnesota has become the first state to outlaw online prediction markets after Gov. Tim Walz signed a public safety bill into law. The Minnesota prediction market ban was tucked in SF 4760, the state's Public Safety Policy Bill, which passed the Minnesota Senate with a lopsided 56-10 vote. The new Minnesota law prohibits bets on categories like sports, elections and popular culture, with advertising related to prohibited bets also banned. As reported by multiple sources, Sen. Jordan Rasmusson, R-Fergus Falls, a co-author on the prediction market bill, stated that "it's important that the state of Minnesota put a marker in the sand and say that the Legislature should be able to debate and look at what forms of gambling we want to legalize." The House adopted its own amendment reinforcing the ban, underscoring that this wasn't a last-minute add-on that slipped through unnoticed.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit Tuesday aiming to stop the Minnesota law from going into effect on August 1, arguing that prediction markets fall under federal oversight. Michael Selig, the sole commissioner of the CFTC, argued that Minnesota's ban on prediction markets harms farmers who use derivatives markets to offset risks, stating "This Minnesota law turns lawful operators and participants in prediction markets into felons overnight." The federal litigation was expected, as the commission has already sued five states over their attempts to regulate prediction markets, with this lawsuit being just one of at least 30 court cases involving states, federal authorities and prediction markets. The CFTC had previously allowed Kalshi to offer event contracts on elections after a protracted legal battle in 2024, but Minnesota's statute is broad enough to encompass federally approved event contracts too.
Former President Donald Trump has filed a lawsuit against Minnesota, asserting that the ban infringes on political speech and stifles access to information markets. The legal argument positions prediction markets not as gambling instruments but as tools for aggregating public sentiment and information, closer to polls than poker. That framing matters significantly, as if prediction markets are speech, they get First Amendment protection. If they're gambling, states have broad authority to regulate or ban them. The Trump lawsuit introduces a wildcard, as if it succeeds in blocking enforcement, it could actually strengthen the legal footing for prediction markets nationwide by establishing that they enjoy some form of constitutional protection. If it fails, Minnesota becomes a blueprint for other states to follow.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BBAI has announced its first deployment of its AI-powered cargo security platform in Panama, marking a strategic expansion in trade and travel security markets. The platform uses biometrics, advanced analytics and real-time monitoring tools to improve cargo visibility and strengthen chain-of-custody verification across supply chains. By linking drivers, transport vehicles and containers through biometric verification, the system aims to help customs and logistics operators detect anomalies, reduce smuggling risks and improve supply chain transparency. Management views the Panama rollout as a strategic milestone, noting that Panama's role as a critical global trade gateway handling nearly 5-6% of global maritime trade could support broader regional adoption of BBAI's cargo-security solutions. The deployment aligns with BigBear.ai's broader growth strategy outlined during its first-quarter 2026 earnings call, prioritizing expansion in national security and trade-and-travel markets.
According to reports from CoinDesk, Bubblemaps analysts led by Nicolas Vaiman discovered 80 bets on Polymarket with a 98% win rate that they said is statistically impossible to achieve. The investigation revealed that nine accounts connected to Polymarket made more than $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations. As reported by CoinDesk, Vaiman stated that during the Iran strikes, civilians were reportedly checking Polymarket to decide whether they should sleep in bunkers or not, indicating the potential for real-world harm from such accurate predictions. The ability to wager on global conflict has created an entirely new category of insider trading, with bets on military plans and outcomes skyrocketing to more than $1 billion alone this year.
