Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse issued a stark warning at XRP Las Vegas on April 30, stating that if the CLARITY Act does not clear the Senate Banking Committee before the Memorial Day recess on May 21, the bill could be shelved until 2030. According to reports from crypto.news, Garlinghouse framed May 21 as a hard ceiling, warning that the political conditions enabling the CLARITY Act are rare in Washington and may not survive a midterm election realignment. The 247 Wall St. analysis notes that XRP has spent most of 2026 waiting on this single catalyst, and that failure before May 21 effectively removes the largest institutional adoption driver for the year. On April 29, just before the Senate broke for recess, Senator Thom Tillis confirmed he'll ask Chairman Tim Scott to schedule the markup when senators return next week, with Senator Cynthia Lummis also telling the Bitcoin 2026 Conference in late April that the markup will happen in May. The earliest realistic date is the week of May 11, and if Scott doesn't put a date on the calendar before May 21, the bill could get shelved indefinitely.
XRP's price action reflects broader network health concerns as XRP trades near $1.38, representing a 62% decline from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65. According to recent analysis, the coin's price tends to fluctuate significantly, with historical drawdowns including a January 2018 peak at $3.40 followed by a plunge to $0.26 by mid-September, and a 2020 drop from $0.66 to $0.22 during the SEC lawsuit against Ripple. Current network metrics show concerning trends with daily active wallet addresses declining from 22,054 wallets 12 months ago to just 13,684 as of April 28. The analysis indicates that fewer new wallet addresses are being created than before, suggesting the chain's rate of adoption is decelerating. These network activity and trading volume declines represent symptoms of problems that could significantly hurt the coin's price over time, particularly in the context of a prolonged crypto bear market.
The bill has over 120 firm backers including Coinbase, Kraken, Circle, and Andreessen Horowitz and holds public support from the White House, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, and Treasury Secretary Bessent. As reported by crypto.news, Senator Bernie Moreno has also said independently that failure to pass the CLARITY Act in 2026 means the next window opens no earlier than 2030. However, Galaxy Research puts overall 2026 passage odds at 50-50 or lower and Polymarket prices it at approximately 46%. Novogratz said on a podcast this week the bill "probably gets done in May," but the compressed timeline and political fragility present significant challenges. If the CLARITY Act passes, it would classify XRP as a digital commodity under federal law, potentially unlocking billions in fresh ETF inflows as institutions have said regulatory uncertainty is what's holding them back from committing capital.
Despite current challenges, spot exchange-traded funds now hold roughly $1.2 billion in cumulative net inflows since launching in late 2025, providing a strong recovery foundation. As reported by crypto.news, Senator Cynthia Lummis made the political fragility argument explicitly at the Bitcoin 2026 Conference on April 27, saying the current simultaneous alignment of House, Senate, and White House on crypto legislation is rare in Washington and may not last. The bill must still clear a Banking Committee markup, a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, reconciliation between Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, reconciliation with the July 2025 House text, and Trump's signature. If XRP falls below $1 due to recession, inflation concerns, or a crypto bear market, the recovery setup will be strong, with the coin having rewarded patient holders who bought during prior crashes. However, if XRP stumbles below $1 because its fundamental story as an asset is unraveling, with declining utilization metrics continuing over the next year, it might make sense to consider selling rather than accumulating.
