Bitcoin is trading near $75,000 with on-chain data flagging $76,800 as key resistance where short-term holders may begin profit-taking. According to CoinDesk, market sentiment has been buoyed by news of an extended ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, with the dollar sliding to a near six-week low and U.S. Treasury yields drifting lower, a combination that typically supports risk assets and non-yielding hedges such as bitcoin and gold. Gold has been rising alongside BTC, signaling what the outlet describes as a market trying to balance risk appetite with lingering demand for safe-haven assets. On-chain cost metrics cluster near $76,800, a level where CoinDesk suggests short-term holders begin to sell into strength, with hourly BTC inflows to exchanges jumping to roughly 11,000 BTC as price tested the mid-$76,000s, the strongest pace since December. However, the S&P 500 set a record on Wednesday while crypto did not follow at the same pace, underscoring a more cautious investor posture in digital assets relative to equities despite the improved geopolitical backdrop.
U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated that the U.S. is close to coming to an agreement with Iran, potentially bringing a permanent end to the war between the two nations. According to reports, Trump noted that the U.S. and Iran could be meeting in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, this weekend, with an extension of a two-week ceasefire remaining on the table. "We're going to see what happens. But I think we're very close to making a deal with Iran," Trump said at the White House. As part of its preparation for the summit, Trump had asked Israel to stop its attacks on Lebanon as a 10-day ceasefire was reportedly announced to allow negotiations to facilitate a permanent peace and security between the two nations. The U.S. and Iran war has largely been driven by political tensions in the U.S. and has drawn significant criticism from the public ahead of the mid-term elections taking place soon. The war in the Middle East that began on Feb. 28 has triggered the most severe oil price shock in history, fueling fears that a prolonged conflict could push the world into a global recession.
Bitcoin price rose past the $75,000 psychological resistance level several times this week but failed to sustain above it, trading at $74,921 at press time but still up 1.7% in the past 24 hours and 5.5% over the past week. According to crypto.news, institutional investors shifted their attention back to the token as 12 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds drew in $597.50 million over the past two days amid hopes of peace between the U.S. and Iran after weeks of war that deteriorated investor appeal for risk assets. The short liquidations of $152.2 million in the past 24 hours further fueled upward momentum, with data from CoinGlass showing Bitcoin squeezed several highly leveraged short traders. Asian stocks such as Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 2.3% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose by 1.7%, with Bitcoin often sharing high correlation with traditional tech stocks. The emergence of more concrete signs of peace between the U.S. and Iran has pushed the crypto fear and greed index into neutral territory, a sign that investor concerns surrounding geopolitical instability have finally faded.
The $76,000 level has now rejected price three times, with IG analysts writing Wednesday that "a technical breakout above roughly $76,100 would signal bullish continuation but failure maintains range-bound trading." According to crypto.news, the SuperTrend indicator has flashed green on the daily chart and MACD lines crossed into positive territory, both pointing to underlying bullish structure. However, BTC has failed to close above $75,000 on a sustained basis across multiple sessions, with the SuperTrend flashing green, a sign that bulls remain dominant over the market at press time. A confirmed close above $76,100 is needed to signal bullish continuation, while crude oil prices fell back below $100, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil standing at $92 and Brent crude trading at $96.50. A look at the weekly Bitcoin liquidation heatmap shows a large cluster of short positions concentrated just above $76,000, hence a breakout above this level could pull the price much higher as a short squeeze triggers a rapid upward move.
Morgan Stanley's new MSBT spot bitcoin fund, listed on NYSE Arca with a 0.14% annual fee, has already drawn more than $100 million in inflows and is now the cheapest spot BTC ETF in the U.S. market, undercutting BlackRock's IBIT at 0.25%. According to Unchained and other industry trackers, MSBT logged about $34 million in first-day net inflows and strong early volume, a sign that large advisors are actively rotating client flows into the bank's in-house product. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs collectively hold more than 1.2 million BTC, or over 6% of total supply, giving traditional finance vehicles an outsized role in marginal bitcoin demand. The new inflows come as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs collectively hold more than 1.2 million BTC, or over 6% of total supply, giving traditional finance vehicles an outsized role in marginal bitcoin demand.
If the U.S. reaches a formal agreement with Iran this weekend, Bitcoin could swiftly rally to $80,000, the next psychological resistance level, and then potentially aim towards its path to $90,000 by Sunday. According to crypto.news, absent that catalyst, BTC looks likely to continue ranging between $72,000 and $76,000 until diplomatic clarity arrives or the FOMC meeting on April 28 provides fresh macro direction. Polymarket prices the Clarity Act's chances of becoming law in 2026 at roughly 48%, according to the platform's tracking with $512,000 in volume. That figure peaked at 72% in mid-March when Senate Democrats held a closed-door meeting on digital asset market structure, but has dropped steadily since Coinbase's withdrawal from the coalition. Without the Clarity Act, the SEC continues operating under the Howey test framework that produced 13 enforcement cases the agency itself admitted produced no investor benefit.
