According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, wallets holding at least 1 million Cardano (ADA) tokens now hold 25.09 billion ADA, the highest combined balance on record. This cohort controls 67.47% of the circulating supply, representing the largest share held by ADA millionaires since July 2020. A significant development emerged in September when a massive 67.9 million ADA outflow, worth over $54 million, left Coinbase and was directed to a single, long-active vault address that now holds over 4.19 billion ADA. This vault address has been active since 2021 with over 1.7 million transactions but consistently avoids staking, representing one of the largest known single holders in the ecosystem. The outflow removed a large block of ADA from exchange supply, though the coins remain locked away and do not participate in staking, creating an opportunity cost for the holder.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has shared a bullish outlook for Cardano, stating that ADA could be preparing for a new rally after months of heavy downside pressure. According to Martinez, the SuperTrend indicator, which flashed a sell signal in September 2025 ahead of Cardano's 73% decline, has now turned bullish on the daily chart. The fresh buy signal suggests that Cardano's local exhaustion phase may be ending, potentially opening the door for a trend reversal. Martinez expects ADA to first target the $0.33 resistance level if momentum continues building, and should the rally strengthen further, he believes Cardano could extend gains toward the $0.42 zone. However, he warned that maintaining support at $0.25 remains critical for the bullish outlook, as a breakdown below that level could delay any recovery attempt and weaken the current setup. At the time of the report, Cardano was trading around $0.2678, with the asset down 65% over the past year despite recent short-term recovery attempts. Kucuker has also emerged as a prominent analyst, arguing that Cardano's long-term chart structure looks incredibly clean and suggesting the asset could target $4.21 if it breaks above the $1 resistance level.
Since the start of 2026 alone, the millionaire cohort has added another 410 million tokens, demonstrating continued buying interest despite Cardano's price decline. As reported by BeInCrypto Markets, ADA is down more than 20% in 2026 despite a recent short-term recovery, with the altcoin trading at $0.2678 at press time. The asset is down 65% over the past year, with the recent Coinbase outflow adding to the pressure by removing a large block of supply from exchange liquidity. Resistance levels at $0.29 and $0.32 are being watched for potential trend reversal as selling pressure eases and accumulation grows. The derivatives market shows minimal activity, with the May 2026 futures contract having open interest of just $942,000 and 24-hour volume of only $1.57K, indicating limited leverage and little immediate pressure from derivative-based liquidations.
In stark contrast to whale behavior, smaller ADA holders have been reducing their positions during the same period. According to Santiment data, wallets holding 100 to 1,000 ADA shed 76.22 million tokens, representing a 15.6% drop. The 1,000 to 10,000 tier released 320 million ADA, or 14.4% of their holdings. When retail sellers and whales accumulate simultaneously, supply transfers from weaker hands to stronger ones, with large holders typically operating on longer time horizons that can support recovery if broader market conditions improve.
The concentrated ownership pattern increases Cardano's sensitivity to whale behavior, particularly if large holders later distribute into market strength. However, the continued accumulation by whales at discounted prices suggests confidence in the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency. The millionaire cohort's record-high holdings indicate significant institutional or sophisticated investor interest despite the asset's recent underperformance relative to broader cryptocurrency markets. Additionally, Cardano's DeFi activity has collapsed 80%, with total value locked dropping from $686 million to $137 million, highlighting the broader challenges facing the ecosystem beyond whale accumulation patterns. The combination of deep price declines meeting concentrated, non-staking accumulation creates a setup where long-term conviction exists but near-term liquidity concerns persist, with the current whale accumulation trend potentially signaling rising confidence that the asset is entering a potential recovery phase.
