According to reports from Santiment, Cardano (ADA) has fallen nearly 41% over the past month, outpacing the broader market's 19.9% decline. The token traded near $0.145 on June 26, down 21% over the past two weeks, reaching multi-year lows that sit roughly 95% below the asset's all-time high. The downtrend followed ADA's break below the $0.23 support level in early June, with the token declining more than 13% over the past week. As reported by Santiment, ADA has been trading near December 2020 price lows during this recent decline. The token has since bounced back to around $0.1482, up more than 1.5% over the past day, though the recovery remains modest and hasn't changed the overall bearish structure. The latest decline followed another failed recovery attempt, with buyers trying to reclaim higher ground but the rally stalling near $0.1903, where the exponential moving average once again acted as resistance.
Despite the continued price decline, whale activity is showing signs of divergence from the broader market trend. Spot market data reveals a noticeable increase in whale orders around current prices, with large holders stepping back into the market as ADA trades near multi-month lows. This buying activity suggests some larger investors are using the recent weakness to build positions, though it does not necessarily mean a reversal is imminent. Whales often accumulate gradually, especially during periods of uncertainty, and the buying does not always mark the exact bottom. The contrast becomes more pronounced when looking at derivatives market positioning, where long positions now account for 75% of total market exposure, indicating that most leveraged traders are betting on a recovery rather than another leg lower. This positioning stands in sharp contrast to the recent price action, as ADA has yet to reclaim its lost support levels despite the growing number of bullish bets.
The SecondFi exploit remains the biggest factor weighing on sentiment, with investigations revealing that 16 million ADA were drained across 374 addresses through a vulnerability linked to wallet generation software. A glitch in Cardano's system affected 196 transactions and 178 staking keys, with total exposure estimated at as much as 129 million ADA worth roughly $20 million. The fallout pushed sentiment deeper into bearish territory and extended Cardano's multi-year decline. Charles Hoskinson disclosed on June 25 that the identity of the white hat hacker who moved 129 million ADA is unknown to Emurgo, the firm that built the platform. Speaking during his X Spaces session, Hoskinson relayed secondhand information from a contributor named 'Jer' who attended a meeting between Cardano governance body Intersect and SecondFi's developers: "A member of the Emurgo team said the identity of the white hat hacker is not known to Emurgo... or at least [Emurgo] said it is not affiliated with Emurgo." The separate 129 million ADA movement was framed by SecondFi as an emergency rescue operation, routed to "an independent, qualified third-party custodian" held for the benefit of affected addresses. SecondFi took a final balance snapshot on June 26 and says it will return lost user assets within two weeks, though it has flagged that this timeline is not guaranteed.
Technical analysis reveals a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows stretching back several months, with the recent sell-off clearly weakening Cardano's technical structure. ADA remains below its key moving averages, and the failed recovery at $0.1903 reinforced that resistance is still intact. The RSI sits at 29, flirting with oversold territory, while MACD has turned marginally positive, signaling fading bearish momentum rather than a confirmed reversal. The big floor to watch is $0.140 psychological level, with a structural low around $0.1382, with a daily close below $0.1451 exposing that zone directly. Key support sits at the $0.140 psychological level, with a structural low around $0.1382, with a daily close below $0.1451 exposing that zone directly. On the upside, initial resistance clusters at $0.1726–$0.1737, the broken descending trendline combined with the 23.6% Fibonacci level, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.1904 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1957. The CoinGlass long-to-short ratio reads 0.72, the lowest in over a month, with funding rates negative at -0.0055%, meaning shorts are currently paying longs, a mild contrarian signal.
Despite the price decline, the network launched the Musashi Dojo testnet for Ouroboros Leios scaling research, a major step toward higher throughput. Governance activity continues with 81% of blocks now running Protocol Version 11. However, governance disputes over treasury funding have further divided the Cardano ecosystem, with these disagreements fueling bearish sentiment across social platforms. Much of the negative sentiment has been attributed to founder Charles Hoskinson's warnings in early June that more projects could fail. Hoskinson also announced a step back from public involvement, stating "What I'm not passionate about is making the price of ADA go up." The firm explained that "the combination of the on-chain spike and elevated FUD has previously preceded mild relief rallies." The crypto hack didn't break the Cardano protocol; every party from Intersect to Hoskinson has stressed that the vulnerability was entirely at the wallet application layer, but the reputational damage to the ecosystem is real, and the market is pricing it accordingly.
