The United States launched strikes against Iran on Tuesday after a US Apache helicopter was downed over the Strait of Hormuz, breaking the fragile ceasefire previously announced by President Donald Trump. US Central Command confirmed that its forces initiated self-defense strikes around 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, with the crew of the downed Apache helicopter safely rescued. Bitcoin tumbled below $62,000, dropping around 2% over the past 24 hours, as investors fled risk assets amid fears of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East. Iran condemned the operation as a gross violation of the ceasefire and warned of potential retaliation, with international mediators including Pakistan having been pushing for an extension of the truce and broader negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and regional security. Total crypto liquidations reached over $400 million over the past 24 hours, with more than $300 million coming from long positions as markets shifted into defensive mode with gold showing limited upside near $4,220 and WTI crude oil prices up 3.5% as investors sought traditional safe-haven assets.
US President Donald Trump told reporters after attending the NBA Finals in New York on Tuesday that a deal to end the war with Iran could be reached in "two or three days," and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen "immediately" afterward. This represents a significant shift from previous timelines, as Trump has previously teased peace deals 37 times according to CNN, with the current Iran conflict crossing 100 days despite earlier predictions of a four to six-week duration. Trump framed the Iran deal as "almost complete" and signaled an announcement at the start of the new business week, language traders read as firmer than the ceasefire speculation that has circulated for months. Trump posted on Truth Social about the prospect of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with both sides confirming independently that they had halted offensive operations. However, the ceasefire frayed again over the weekend as Iran fired missiles toward northern Israel and Israel responded with what it described as a "large-scale strike on strategic defense systems," with Netanyahu stating Tuesday that "the war has not yet ended." Fresh pressure emerged after Trump issued a series of posts on Truth Social criticizing Iran and signaling that military action could intensify, telling reporters that "we're going to be attacking them very hard."
The crypto market has shed by 20% in a month, with Bitcoin barely holding above $62,000 as investors grapple with a hostile macro backdrop. Ethereum has breached the psychologically huge $2,000 level and XRP is going down fast, highlighting the broad-based nature of the selloff. Hotter-than-expected inflation prints have markets reluctantly pricing in a "higher for longer" rate environment, creating direct headwinds for Bitcoin and risk assets regardless of political soundbites. Pro-Trump influencers on X are circulating the line that he "loves the inflation," framing persistent CPI as a weapon against the current administration, while macro analysts push back hard, arguing that real yields drive crypto flows, not campaign rhetoric. ETF inflows into US spot Bitcoin products have become the clearest short-term directional signal, and those flows have been wavering amid escalating geopolitical flashpoints across the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
Bitcoin is trading in a weekly range of $59,000–$64,000, with that band acting as both short-term support and resistance. The current $62,800 print sits uncomfortably in the middle of that channel, a no man's land for directional traders. The technical structure is mixed at best, with analyst video breakdowns identifying ascending trendline support clustering around $60,000 on higher timeframes, while the critical resistance zone sits between $67,500 and $70,000. A clean breakout above $71,500–$73,000 would flip the short-term bias decisively bullish. Ethereum at $1,600 is tracking BTC's indecision rather than generating its own momentum, while XRP remains range-bound at low with no breakout catalyst in sight. The collapse in corporate buying pressure adds another layer of bearish overhang to the market.
On-chain data reveals Bitcoin has entered a period historically associated with major market stress, with K33 Research finding that over 50% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is now held at an unrealized loss after the cryptocurrency briefly fell below $60,000 earlier this week. According to K33 head of research Vetle Lunde, similar readings appeared near major bear-market lows in 2011, 2018, and 2022, although he noted that the indicator does not guarantee an immediate bottom. Technical indicators continue to show weakness, with Bitcoin remaining below a bearish Supertrend indicator near $83,500 and having broken beneath a long-term trendline that previously acted as support. Weekly stochastic RSI has also turned lower, indicating that downside momentum remains intact. CoinGlass liquidation data points to important short-term levels, with the largest concentration of leveraged positions sitting near $64,000, creating a potential upside liquidity target if Bitcoin rebounds. On the downside, notable liquidation clusters remain concentrated around the $60,000 to $60,500 zone, an area traders continue to watch closely as geopolitical headlines drive market sentiment. If Bitcoin maintains support above $60,000, the next upside target could be the heavily populated liquidation zone around $64,000, while a breakdown below $60,000 may open the door to a move toward $55,000 and potentially the $52,400 support level.
