Bitcoin has recovered toward $83,220.70 at press time, with analysts now positioning the cryptocurrency for a potential $87,000 breakout in November. According to latest data, the cryptocurrency traded at $83,200.43, up 1.65% from the day's opening price of $81,850.01, though it remains about $968 below its intraday high of $84,168. The session reached $84,168 before retreating, with Bitcoin trading approximately 0.9% below its 20-day moving average at $83,986.24. Technical indicators show mixed signals, as the daily MACD remains below its signal line with a negative histogram reading of -516.83, while both MACD lines remain above zero but show bearish alignment. The cryptocurrency's recovery toward $83,200 has regained part of the latest decline without overcoming the September and early-October peaks near $87,000.
A key development shaping Bitcoin's November outlook is the potential rejection of USDT dominance at the 7% level, which represents the same resistance that failed during the mid-September rally. According to AMBCrypto, this rejection triggered three weeks of downside in USDT dominance while Bitcoin rallied from $74,000 to $87,000 over the same period. The current scenario suggests that traders are moving funds out of stablecoins, with USDT dominance up more than 2.5% this month, reflecting Bitcoin's retreat from $87,000 to $82,000. If this resistance pattern repeats, it could trigger another rotation into risk assets, providing Bitcoin with an opportunity to recover toward the $87,000 level and establish a new bullish trend.
Market dynamics are favoring Bitcoin's November performance as global liquidity has increased significantly in the last 30 days, with China accounting for 39% of global money supply and the US holding 17%, bringing total global money supply to $140 trillion. According to AMBCrypto, this liquidity expansion comes at an opportune time after the CPI-driven correction, potentially absorbing profit-taking pressure and supporting Bitcoin above the $75,000-$80,000 level where short-term holders have significant cost basis. Smart money accumulation is evident as analysts noted five wallets buying 1,076 BTC worth $90.42 million ahead of CPI data release, while Bitcoin dominance has broken back above the 60% resistance level, suggesting building buying pressure ahead of potential volatility spikes.
Market analysts are painting a concerning picture for Bitcoin, with recent developments suggesting conditions for a potential October bottom are improving. According to XWIN Japan and DeFi Asset Management, these developments suggest conditions for a bottom are improving, though confirmation requires sustained ETF inflows, stronger U.S. spot buying and continued demand recovery. Glassnode confirmed the bearish pressure surrounding Bitcoin in their weekly market update, showing how declining Spot, Futures, and ETF indicators, with moderate risk signals across spot and ETF markets, are adding pressure on the recent rally. The situation is particularly tense given the timing with U.S. midterm elections approaching, as market participants watch whether the latest correction could mark a turning point for the largest cryptocurrency.
Despite Bitcoin's recovery attempts, several concerning indicators suggest elevated market stress. According to Benjamin Cowen, founder & CEO of ITC, Bitcoin's percentage of supply in profit and loss shows approximately 71.04% of Bitcoin supply was in profit, while 28.96% remained in loss, though most holders were still profitable. A crypto data analyst Maartunn highlighted growing weakness in U.S. institutional demand, pointing to the Coinbase Premium Gap plunging to approximately -$107, indicating Bitcoin is trading at a discount on Coinbase relative to other exchanges. The situation was further compounded by 169,781 traders being liquidated over the past 24 hours, resulting in total liquidations of $811.79 million, as reported by CoinGlass. Meanwhile, BTC ETFs recorded $65.40 million outflows on October 12th.
