According to Grayscale's latest market analysis, Bitcoin may fall further if three key risks materialize in the coming months. The asset manager's head of research, Zach Pandl, warned that if downside risks materialize, Bitcoin could see moderate further decline. Grayscale's base case assumes the CLARITY Act clears the Senate, Strategy improves its financial position, and the Federal Reserve avoids more rate hikes. However, a weaker scenario involves the CLARITY Act failing to pass this year, digital asset treasuries deleveraging further, and the Fed raising rates due to persistent inflation into 2026.
The CLARITY Act remains one of the main policy factors in Grayscale's outlook, with the bill having moved to the Senate calendar after committee approval but still requiring floor debate, possible amendments, and 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. A recent timeline report indicates the bill still needs coordination between the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees before final floor voting can begin. The legislation faces unresolved disputes over conflict-of-interest language, stablecoin rules, illicit finance provisions, and floor time. Grayscale views a successful vote as potentially reducing policy risk and supporting the next phase of institutional participation, while a delay would leave the market without the clear rulebook many investors expected.
The Federal Reserve represents the second major risk in Grayscale's downside scenario, with recent reports showing Citadel Securities warning the Fed could raise rates as early as September 2026 if inflation remains firm. Another report indicates the Fed's June projections shifted away from rate cuts, with several officials now seeing hikes before year-end. Higher rates pose particular pressure on Bitcoin because the asset does not pay yield, making cash and Treasuries more attractive for investors. This has already pressured Bitcoin and gold this year, with both assets under stress during a stronger-dollar and higher-rate environment.
Strategy's position moved about $12 billion below cost after Bitcoin fell below $60,000, while MSTR traded below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Another analysis revealed that Strategy's Bitcoin flywheel began to reverse as its stock premium weakened and financing became harder. This financial stress adds to the broader market pressure, with recent Bitcoin price analysis showing ETF outflows and liquidations adding pressure as traders defended the $60,000 area. Grayscale notes that while older Bitcoin bear markets saw drawdowns of around 80%, it does not expect the current cycle to fall that deeply due to firmer institutional demand.
According to reports from Crypto Rover, Bitcoin's 500-day halving rule indicates the next accumulation window opens in late November 2026, approximately 500 days before the April 2028 halving. The rule, which has tracked the last three Bitcoin cycles since 2013, tells traders to buy 500 days before each halving and sell 500 days after. The next halving is scheduled for April 13, 2028, at block 1,050,000, when the block reward will drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Counting back 500 days from this date places the buy window near November 30, 2026, about five months from now. The warning comes after Bitcoin fell below $60,000 during a sharp reset across crypto markets, with the price having fallen more than 50% from its October 2025 record.
