Bitcoin whales have significantly increased their positions ahead of a major institutional turnaround, with wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC increasing their share of supply from 21.11% on July 23 to 21.25% by month-end, according to Santiment data. The larger 10,000 to 100,000 BTC cohort had been trimming since July 22, bottoming near 11.19% on July 27 before turning back up to 11.25% into the month's close. Combined, these shifts represent a 0.20% gain across both cohorts, applied to Bitcoin's roughly 20.06 million circulating supply, working out to approximately 40,100 BTC worth close to $2.6 billion. Derivatives positioning reinforced this trend, with a whale-retail divergence reading of +21.8 on the daily timeframe flagging large traders as far more tilted toward long exposure than retail.
Bitcoin faces a decisive test at $61,000, where holding Binance's realized cost basis could preserve market structure and limit deeper downside risk. According to reports from AMBCrypto, the Binance Reserve Realized Price has served as support twice in 2026, unlike in 2022 when this same level was lost. Recent rebounds from around $64,000 toward $65,100 reinforce that buyers are still absorbing supply despite recent volatility. The latest data shows Bitcoin managed to push higher to $66,956 on Tuesday, July 21, before facing rejection and pulling back to the $63.9k area before climbing back toward $65k. Latest market data from Paybis confirms Bitcoin's current trading range, with the cryptocurrency showing a -2.07% decline in the last 24 hours and maintaining a $1.3 trillion market capitalization.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs had been experiencing significant outflows before the dramatic turnaround on July 30. The funds posted four straight negative sessions, including outflows of $225.18 million on July 23 and $240.08 million on July 24, before flows turned modestly positive at $32.11 million on July 29. Then July 30 delivered $233.13 million in net inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT account contributing $183.4 million of the total, or about 79% of the day. This represented the second-largest single-day inflow of the month, behind only the $265.69 million recorded on July 6, and it landed at the very end of July while the market was still digesting a corporate bitcoin buying freeze among some large treasury holders.
Despite selling pressure, larger holders appear to be strengthening their positions rather than reducing exposure. According to AMBCrypto, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC accumulated 19,696 BTC over the past eight days, even as wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC slowed their dip buying. This shift suggests the latest recovery relies more on institutional and whale conviction than broad retail participation, with weaker retail demand potentially limiting upside momentum unless larger buyers continue absorbing supply. The timing of this accumulation is particularly significant as August carries a median return near negative 8%, the weakest of any month, and has closed red every year since 2022. However, the convergence of whale cohorts, futures positioning, and ETF cash all turning higher at once, in that order, represents a real accumulation before a potential bounce, though the data cannot rule out hedging or short-dated trades.
Technical momentum indicators reflect the current bearish sentiment. As reported by AMBCrypto, the RSI has fallen to 36.9 while the MACD remains below its signal line. Unless buyers absorb selling near $61,221, this structure may lead to an additional decline in price for Bitcoin below $60,000. The shift also appears in momentum indicators, with the RSI falling to 36.9 while the MACD remained below its signal line as of writing. Over the past two weeks, considerable amounts of long and short liquidations have built up at $63.5k and $67.1k respectively, representing nearby key magnetic zones that swing traders need to monitor.
The next directional move may depend on macro catalysts, with the Federal Reserve's rate decision scheduled for Wednesday, July 29. As noted by crypto analyst Ibrahim Cosart, we are heading into a critical 48-hour window, with the Personal Consumption Expenditure data to be revealed just a day later. Managing risk will matter more than making directional bets during this period. If Bitcoin breaches $67.2k, a rally toward $73k-$77k would become likely, while a breakdown below $63.7k would likely see Bitcoin slump toward the $61k and $57.8k demand zones. The current market environment reflects broader crypto industry volatility, with factors including overall market uncertainty, high selling pressure from traders, and global economic developments affecting investor confidence.
