Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, has reaffirmed his ambitious price targets for bitcoin, stating that the cryptocurrency's return to its October high is a 'foregone conclusion.' According to his latest essay titled 'The Butterfly Touch' published on May 12, 2026, Hayes identified $90,000 as the level where the rally turns explosive, explaining that call option writers with higher strike prices would be forced to buy bitcoin to cover their positions, accelerating the advance. The Maelstrom fund is taking its positions to maximum risk, with Hayes disclosing the fund's altcoin positioning in Hyperliquid's HYPE token and Zcash's ZEC, while NEAR has been identified as the next pick. As reported by Wu Blockchain, Hayes believes that Bitcoin has already formed a bottom near $60,000 earlier this year and is positioned for a significant surge to the $126,000 mark in the future. Hayes has now declared that the Bitcoin bull market is already underway, arguing in a recent blog post that the rally began in late February, linking the move to a surge in fiat-based credit expansion driven by massive investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, rising military expenditures, and spending on physical supply chain security.
Hayes' latest analysis emphasizes that the primary catalyst pushing Bitcoin's growth is artificial intelligence (AI) and the intensifying competition between China and the United States for AI leadership. According to Wu Blockchain, Hayes noted that 'The presidents of America and China (Trump and Xi) both believe that AI and tech supremacy are integral to the survival of their fiefdoms.' The author contends that governments and central banks are being pressured to continue printing money and extending credit by factors such as growing military spending, growing investor optimism, and the global AI race. Hayes believes that in such high-liquidity settings, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin typically do very well, with the competition for AI leadership creating sustained demand for digital assets. The report suggests that increased AI infrastructure investment and military spending could add to inflationary pressures and drive up crypto prices, making the current market conditions favorable for risk assets and cryptocurrencies. Hayes points to unprecedented capital expenditure in AI as a primary catalyst, noting that the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks continue to inject liquidity into the financial system, a trend he expects to accelerate. He also highlights a declining trust in U.S. dollar-denominated assets, which he believes is prompting a shift of capital into physical infrastructure and commodity stockpiles, further fueling fiat expansion and ultimately benefiting Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value.
Bitmine Immersion Technologies has achieved a remarkable milestone in Ethereum accumulation, holding 5.21 million ETH tokens representing 4.31% of the total circulating supply. The company's combined crypto and cash reserves now stand at $13.4 billion, a figure that has grown steadily since Bitmine's strategic uplisting to the New York Stock Exchange effective April 9, 2026. Bitmine's board unanimously approved an increase of the total repurchase authorization from $1.0 billion to $4.0 billion following the NYSE listing. The company's crypto holdings rank it as the number one Ethereum treasury and number two global crypto treasury, behind Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR). Bitmine reached the 5 million ETH mark in under a year, reflecting a sustained accumulation strategy rather than opportunistic buying. The company currently stakes 4.71 million ETH through its native MAVAN infrastructure, generating an estimated $352 million in projected annual rewards via its Made in America VAlidator Network (MAVAN). Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee has noted that Ethereum continues to benefit from the dual tailwinds of Wall Street tokenizing on the blockchain and agentic AI systems increasingly needing public and neutral blockchains.
Current on-chain metrics are providing support for Hayes' optimistic prediction, though they don't yet confirm the $126K target. As reported by AMBCrypto, Bitcoin's Taker Buy Sell Ratio was hovering around 0.93, indicating that aggressive sellers are marginally stronger traders who might be profiting from the recent surge. However, the chart suggests that the market structure has not yet been disrupted by selling pressure because the price is still hovering around highs. Additionally, the Bitcoin Spot Volume Bubble Map indicated that the accumulation is occurring gradually, with the rally not yet exhibiting typical mania behavior where buyers are active but restrained. The nine-day run confirms sustained profit realization rather than a one-time occurrence, raising the possibility that the market is still in the middle of a longer bullish cycle. Hayes' analysis offers a macro-focused perspective that goes beyond typical technical analysis, providing a framework for understanding potential long-term drivers by linking Bitcoin's price trajectory to global fiscal and monetary trends.
Hayes identified two scenarios that could end the current rally, as reported by CoinDesk. The first involves an irresponsible mega-AI IPO or merger in the U.S. or China that the market cannot absorb, potentially snapping investors out of the current manic phase. The second occurs if the Democratic challenger in the 2028 U.S. presidential election runs on an anti-AI platform that promises to curtail the capex buildout, with the popularity of that message forcing lenders to reconsider whether credit continues flowing to the sector. Hayes noted that the November 2026 mid-term elections could be a 'slight speed bump' before then. According to Wu Blockchain, Hayes even acknowledged that 'Many haters will refuse to participate in this Bitcoin rally because it underperformed tech and gold substantially over the last twenty-four months.' However, the report suggests that political opposition to AI growth may intensify in the run-up to the 2028 presidential election, with inflation and automation worries becoming significant campaign concerns. Investors should note that such forecasts are inherently speculative and subject to rapid change based on regulatory developments, geopolitical events, or shifts in market sentiment.
