Bitcoin briefly surpassed $81,000 today, with net realized profits hitting $207.56 million, marking the highest single-month reading in this cycle according to Santiment data. The realized profit measures the aggregate gain locked in when coins move on-chain above their original acquisition price, with the $207.56 million reading on Sunday representing a cycle-high at a psychologically loaded price level. Coins purchased near $70,000 crossed into profit territory once Bitcoin cleared $80,000, and a portion of those holders sold as the market demonstrated active demand during the move. However, high profit-taking in a rising market may indicate that buyers have taken advantage of the supply, creating mixed signals for the current rally. The arithmetic implies that buyers absorbing the profit-taking are not new retail users creating fresh wallets, but existing large holders adding to positions at $80K. The $207 million print is a one-month high, not an all-time high, with genuine cycle tops producing realized profit events that climb into the multiple billions, after which the market typically rolls over within days.
Bitcoin traded near $80,804 on May 5 after rising 22% in five weeks, according to reports from Ali Charts. The cryptocurrency has gained approximately 15% since April 13 following a bullish MACD crossover on the weekly chart. Well-known crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that similar weekly MACD crossovers have preceded earlier multi-month moves, including a 147% rally after October 23, 2023, a 75% rally after October 14, 2024, and a 35% rally after May 5, 2025. On the daily chart, Ali Charts placed the 200-day simple moving average near $83,000, describing it as the main psychological and structural barrier, with a daily close above this level potentially opening a path toward $89,000. The price chart on May 5 shows BTC at $80,824 above all three moving averages: the 50-MA at $79,467, the 100-MA at $78,803, and the 200-MA at $77,782, with the RSI reading 63.46, building momentum without being overbought.
According to Santiment data, Bitcoin's on-chain activity dropped to two-year lows while BTC moved back above $80,000. About 531,000 Bitcoin wallets made daily transfers, while roughly 203,000 new wallets were created each day, both representing 2-year lows. The move happened without broad adoption, with daily active addresses at 531K and new Bitcoin wallets created daily at 203K during the 2024-2025 peaks reaching significantly above current readings. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is trending toward levels historically associated with local tops in prior cycles, with similar readings at resistance preceding a 20-30% retracement before continuation in 2021, while they were absorbed in late 2023. Short liquidations also helped the move, with market data showing about $270 million in short positions were cleared as BTC moved higher. A weekly close above $81,000 that then holds as support on the first retest would shift the setup materially, with the upside target at $86,000-$89,000 liquidity cluster.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs provided significant support to the rally, with SoSoValue data showing U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $532 million in net inflows on May 4, after $630 million on May 1. The two sessions brought about $1.16 billion into the products. Ali Charts also reported that whales bought 4,527 BTC in 24 hours, worth about $362 million, indicating large-holder demand even as broader network use remains weak. Bitcoin's market dominance also rose above 60%, showing that capital continued to favor BTC over many altcoins during the move. However, Bitcoin ETF inflows have shown signs of stalling at zero net flows since the October peak, and the crypto market distribution dynamic becomes dangerous if that trend does not reverse. The current data shows a paradox where retail has not yet arrived, with the confirmation signal being daily active addresses rising above 600K while price holds above $80K.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin's lower-timeframe structure remains intact as long as price holds above the $73,000-$75,000 range, but the rejection near $80,000 is not a clean technical signal. The $80,800 level is where cycle-based models flag elevated risk, with Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson publicly warning that losing Bitcoin can open the door to $65,500. The cost-basis suggests a change in the underlying market structure, with old holders cashing out on Sunday transferring coins to buyers willing to pay around $80,000, raising the average entry price across the network. That thickens the layer of holders whose break-even point sits close to current levels, and they tend to be the most likely to panic if prices drop. A return to net positive weekly Bitcoin ETF flows above $500 million would confirm that institutional absorption is outpacing long-term holder distribution. Failure below $80,700 flips the structure bearish and puts the $75,000 and $73,000 demand zones back in play, making confirmation from holding above $80K crucial for the current bullish setup. The current structure is temporary, as a market driven entirely by large holders trading among themselves has a ceiling.
