Bitcoin could reclaim the $70,000 level by late July 2026, according to recent predictions from SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz. Scaramucci expects Bitcoin to return to $70,000 because market mood has turned too negative, stating that any fresh buying could push BTC through that level. Novogratz provides a more measured outlook, saying the odds are '70/30' if the CLARITY Act moves forward. The recovery timeline comes as Bitcoin has experienced a significant correction, declining over 25% in less than a month from its $82,000 local top, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to just 8/100.
The CLARITY Act remains a key catalyst for Bitcoin's potential recovery, though passage faces political challenges. Novogratz recently met with lawmakers from both parties and still sees interest in passing the bill, though talks remain stuck on ethics rules and legal treatment of privacy software. Galaxy previously cut its odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 60% as Senate time runs short, with JPMorgan and Bitwise also providing more cautious views as the August recess approaches. The regulatory clarity could create clearer crypto market rules in the United States, supporting Bitcoin's long-term institutional adoption.
The Bitcoin outlook is linked to broader economic factors, particularly U.S. debt and inflation dynamics. Novogratz highlighted that the country has about $40 trillion in debt and cannot simply grow its way out of that burden, suggesting policymakers may need steady inflation to reduce the real value of that debt over time. This argument supports the hard-asset case for Bitcoin, as investors often seek scarce assets when worried about money supply, debt, and weaker purchasing power. However, Novogratz warned that inflation can become hard to control if public trust breaks, adding complexity to the economic outlook.
Recent market flows indicate potential continued downside pressure, with nearly 26,000 BTC ($1.6 billion) flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs this week alone. Additionally, BlackRock reportedly moved $226 million worth of Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime, while medium-term holders have become more active during this correction. The SpaceX IPO and Strategy trades add additional market pressure, as SpaceX's planned offering drew more than $250 billion in orders, nearly four times the amount it aimed to raise. Meanwhile, ARK bought about $444 million in SpaceX shares, while the stock closed its first day almost 19% above its IPO price, raising concerns about capital moving away from crypto toward large technology listings.
