Bitcoin long-term holders are demonstrating unprecedented conviction in the cryptocurrency as their supply dynamics shift dramatically. According to data from Alphractal, the long-term holder momentum indicator has recorded a major spike, placing it among the top 1% of surges recorded since 2017. Long-term holders are defined as wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days without moving their coins, and this recent upswing represents a significant change in momentum among the most committed Bitcoin investors. The asset, with a market capitalization of $1.59 trillion, has continued to hover between the $79,000 and $81,000 range without a decisive break in either direction over recent weeks.
Despite the price decline, long-term holders are showing no intent to sell their positions. The Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which tracks whether long-term holders have moved their coins for potential selling, shows no significant distribution taking place. As reported by CryptoQuant, the long-term holder Binary CDD has remained at zero, meaning there has been minimal movement of Bitcoin toward exchanges for selling. The LTH-STH Spent Output Profit Ratio, which tracks whether long-term holders or short-term holders are driving market profits, has continued to decline, indicating that short-term holders are driving the bulk of Bitcoin sales. At the time of writing, CoinGlass data shows total Bitcoin sold amounted to $1.89 billion as of May 13th, with press-time sales reaching $541 million, yet net inflow readings across both days suggest buyers remain in control.
Bitcoin is currently testing crucial resistance levels as technical indicators show mixed signals. According to Kitco News, Bitcoin bounced off the daily TBO Fast line on Thursday, with RSI reclaiming its white support trend and OBV continuing its bullish ascent. However, Thursday's high wick into the TBO Resistance at $81,788—without a close above—highlights selling pressure at that level. A successful dip-and-buy off the Fast line remains a positive sign, but breaches of the next support fan line and recent pivots on Wednesday and Thursday undermine confidence. While the daily chart remains technically "strong bullish," the early fractures suggest a bearish lean until BTC can sustain a close above $81,788. The next Fibonacci target sits at the 0.5 retracement level of $87,017, though achieving this appears unlikely in the near term.
The current market conditions represent a significant improvement over previous bear market cycles. According to AMBCrypto analysis, relative unrealized losses have peaked at 15%, a significantly contained reading compared to the 2015, 2019, and 2022 bear cycles, where the same metric surged to extremes above 75%. At the time of writing, CoinGlass data shows total Bitcoin sold amounted to $1.89 billion as of May 13th, with press-time sales reaching $541 million. However, net inflow readings across both days suggest buyers remain in control of the market. The current conditions are described as a "temporary market stress" by AMBCrypto, with long-term holders at their calmest phase on record compared to previous bear market cycles.
