Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin may be nearing a market bottom, citing months of subdued price action, investor apathy, and a lack of sellers as key indicators. In an interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Hougan pointed to "boring" market conditions as beautiful, noting that periods of boredom and apathy are often associated with the end of crypto bear markets. "Crypto bear markets end in apathy," Hougan stated, adding that the current market feels consistent with Bitcoin's four-year cycle. The Bitwise executive emphasized that "there's no more sellers left in Bitcoin," describing the cryptocurrency as having "treaded water" for a couple of months without significant breakdowns. Hougan remains optimistic about Bitcoin's performance for the remainder of the year, stating "I'm feeling pretty optimistic about where we go for the rest of the year."
Bitcoin has triggered eight of VanEck's 12 capitulation signals after falling 49% from its peak, though the firm's historical data shows no return advantage within six months. According to VanEck's mid-August Bitcoin ChainCheck, all 12 indicators entered their capitulation zones at least once during the three-month period covered by the report, with eight remaining active when the firm took its latest readings. The asset manager's indicators cover price losses, miner finances, and the share of Bitcoin holders carrying unrealized losses, designed to detect conditions that have appeared when selling pressure approached extreme levels during earlier market cycles. Bitcoin averaged 12.8% returns after 90 days when eight to 12 signals were active, though VanEck's average return across all comparable 90-day periods was higher at 15.2%.
Bitcoin's current valuation has reached the lowest end of the rainbow model, extending a decline that has moved the price below its historical trend. According to reports from AMBCrypto, the metric categorizes BTC based on valuation bands using the relationship of market price to long-term growth trend. At press time, BTC traded 66% below the $186,700 model price, thus placing it beneath the lowest band. Supporting this deviation, the volatility-adjusted Z-Score has fallen to -2.293, below the 2022 low of -1.979, indicating a greater chance of discount when considering differences in volatility across cycles. 30-day realized volatility has fallen to an annualized 27.2%, compared with Bitcoin's long-run average of about 80%, according to VanEck, alongside reduced participation with spot volume in the 10th percentile of recorded history.
Bitcoin has experienced a significant rally following US President Donald Trump's remarks alongside technology leaders, including crypto executives. Trump called on Congress to pass the Crypto CLARITY Act and announced that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is working on bringing Hyperliquid to the US market. At latest check, Bitcoin was trading at $71,647, up 11.33%, according to CoinMarketCap data, with the cryptocurrency fluctuating between $64,307 and $71,725 over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin's market capitalization stood at $1.43 trillion, reflecting the market's response to the policy developments. The rally comes as Hougan noted Bitcoin's ability to "shrug off negative news without a significant breakdown," describing the current market conditions as "coiled volatility" that may come up on the upside.
Bitcoin miners have absorbed significant pressure during the current cycle, with daily revenue across the mining network falling 46% from a year earlier due to lower prices and weak transaction fees. According to VanEck's analysis, mining difficulty dropped 18.3% from its November 2025 peak as operators switched off machines that could no longer run profitably, representing the steepest decline since China prohibited domestic Bitcoin mining in 2021. The difficulty reduction allows the network to adjust to falling computing power but indicates that some miners have been unable to cover electricity and operating costs. Coins untouched for more than one year declined by 356,534 BTC over 30 days to 11.84 million BTC, equal to 59.1% of circulating supply, with all six long-term age groups recording reductions. Wallets holding coins for one to two years accounted for the largest decrease at about 156,000 BTC.
U.S. spot Bitcoin products received approximately $663 million during VanEck's 30-day measurement period, reversing part of the $2.4 billion withdrawn during the previous month. This represents roughly 10,400 BTC at the prices used in the report, though fund demand has remained uneven outside the report's measurement window. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $389.7 million during the week ending August 14, according to SoSoValue data, following earlier gains of $853.5 million across five consecutive sessions. Recent data shows $297.5 million of net inflows on August 17 and another $189.3 million on August 18, producing a combined two-day total of $486.8 million. VanEck placed the next possible accumulation period between September and November without selecting a specific date, with Bitcoin entering the tenth month of its fall from the October 2025 high during August.
