Bitcoin's push toward $90,000 has stalled below $87,722 as weekly U.S. spot ETF inflows have fallen dramatically from $2.39 billion to $241.1 million, according to Bitfinex analysts. The cryptocurrency dropped back to the $85,000 zone on Tuesday, September 6, remaining in this range for two weeks now. As per Bitfinex Alpha's October 5 market update, Bitcoin's recovery needs fresh spot purchases, with ETF investors showing less appetite to buy around their average entry price. The exchange's analysts expect Bitcoin to trade between $84,000 and its $87,722 yearly opening price during the week, with their bullish view remaining intact despite the current weakness. However, recent data shows CryptoQuant's 30-day apparent spot demand improved from around negative 182,000 BTC on September 24 to negative 101,000 BTC on October 1, though it has not yet turned positive. According to BeInCrypto, Bitcoin trades at $81,607, down 2.2% over 24 hours, bringing the average ETF position marginally underwater again.
Strategy reported an estimated $20.91 billion Q3 gain on its bitcoin holdings, while Strive disclosed purchasing 2,000 BTC for $169 million at an average price of $84,422 per coin, as reported by market sources. Strive's latest acquisition brings its total bitcoin holdings to 29,462 BTC. Strategy also added 334 BTC to its holdings, bringing its total to 848,000 BTC, funded by approximately $28.7 million from Class A common stock sales. Using Checkonchain's flow-weighted estimate, Bitfinex places ETF investors' average purchase price at $84,320, with Bitcoin remaining below that level for 233 consecutive days before reclaiming it on September 21. During the week ending September 28, BlackRock's IBIT attracted $450.2 million while Fidelity's FBTC lost $168 million. The September burst is visible in Farside Investors' fund table, with five trading days bringing approximately $999 million, $714.7 million, $346.9 million, $190.7 million and $134.5 million respectively, though recent daily flows show $189.9 million inflow on October 2 followed by $89.8 million outflow on October 5.
The latest ETF data reveals a sharp split in market behavior, with Fidelity's FBTC driving the majority of outflows while BlackRock's IBIT remains a net buyer. According to Farside data, Fidelity FBTC alone has lost $408.1 million between October 1-8, posting outflows in five of October's six trading sessions. ARK 21Shares ARKB also recorded significant outflows of $214.9 million, while Grayscale GBTC and Bitwise BITB lost $78.9 million and $52.2 million respectively. However, BlackRock IBIT absorbed $332.5 million during the same period, demonstrating the divergent investor bases. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart estimates the average U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holder paid $81,722 per coin, with Bitcoin clearing that level in late September. When BTC reached the breakeven price, holders did not wait to find out, with $484.9 million in outflows on October 7 and another $244.1 million on October 8, wiping out October's early gains and leaving month-to-date net flows at minus $407.4 million.
The immediate technical test centers on the $87,000–$87,400 resistance zone, with $87,570 above it serving as a broader continuation threshold, according to market analysis. Bitfinex analysts identified $84,000 as Bitcoin's largest cost-basis cluster and the price at which 75% of supply is in profit. Below that support, the team expects Bitcoin to retest the September breakout area between $84,000 and $81,300. Asset manager 21Shares stated that a monthly close above $88,000 would confirm a trend change, while a slide to $81,000 could open a drop toward $71,300. The September jobs report showed 29,000 payroll additions and unemployment at 4.2%, which markets interpreted as reducing near-term rate pressure, providing support for risk assets. However, the overall crypto market dipped to approximately $2.93 trillion, just below a resistance level identified at $2.95 trillion. At $84,300, BTC is below the $84,500 support level and well short of the $87,000–$87,400 resistance band. A weekly close above $84,972 has also been cited as a sign that the pullback may be ending, with a clean break through $87,400 putting $90,000 in view.
For the current range to break upward, Bitfinex's latest report calls for several ETF sessions attracting at least $340 million each, alongside a daily close above $87,722. Under that scenario, analysts identify $90,000 as the next test. A decisive loss of $82,600 would put ETF investors back underwater, potentially slowing inflows and delaying another advance. Even with daily closes below $84,000, the analysts would retain their recovery view if ETF flows remain flat or positive and short-term holders continue selling at a profit. The broader test extends beyond Bitcoin, with US spot Ethereum ETFs logging eight straight sessions of outflows, losing $641.3 million since September 29. The pressure also extends to broader crypto markets, with the distinction between institutional and retail investors becoming increasingly important. Meanwhile, other altcoin ETFs have shown mixed performance in October, with Ethereum ETFs recording the largest withdrawals at $634.80 million, while Binance ETFs attracted $98.89 million in inflows. The SEC recently approved Cboe BZX's proposed rule change, clearing a listing hurdle for 3x daily leveraged ETFs tied to Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas, potentially increasing competition for Bitcoin ETF flows.
