Bitcoin has erased losses after Monday's Wall Street open as markets largely shrugged off the return of US-Iran war tensions. According to Cointelegraph data, BTC/USD posted 2.5% daily gains despite the lack of resolution to the geopolitical crisis. The cryptocurrency joined stocks in a muted reaction to the latest US-Iran deterioration and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with US stocks seeing modest downside as the week began. Oil began retracing an initial move toward $90, further reducing the impact of geopolitical concerns on Bitcoin markets. This resilience comes after President Trump announced a fresh round of negotiations over Iran in Pakistan, with his representatives scheduled to meet in Islamabad for negotiations.
Bitcoin has entered the week with fresh pressure on both short-term and bigger picture charts, facing a new CME gap that could define near-term volatility. According to Daan Crypto Trades analysis, CME futures reopened well below Friday's close, leaving an untraded area between roughly $74,900 and $77,500. This gap formed as stock futures opened lower, while oil moved higher after weekend headlines. The setup matters significantly because CME gaps often become short-term reference zones for traders, with the current structure suggesting caution as price bounced slightly after the open but still sits far below the gap range. Despite the pullback in spot alongside renewed tensions, volatility has stayed notably subdued, hovering near year-to-date lows, as noted by crypto trading company QCP Capital.
Bitcoin has surged past the $75,000 level, driven by strong spot exchange-traded fund inflows that reached $996 million over the past week. According to recent reports, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their strongest weekly inflows since mid-January, with BlackRock's IBIT fund alone adding over $250 million in a single day. This institutional demand contrasts sharply with Grayscale's GBTC, which recorded modest outflows during the same period. The steady inflow of funds has provided strong support for Bitcoin's price, unlike short-term retail-driven rallies that tend to support shorter trends. However, analysis suggests that Bitcoin's recent local highs were simply a result of buying pressure from Strategy and speculative traders, with sellers stepping in to take profit and halting the rally.
Bitcoin has reached the $75,000 level but is facing significant resistance, with immediate resistance positioned near $78,320 at recent highs. The cryptocurrency has been trading within a range from $64,000 to $75,000 since the final week of February, with the current push beyond $70,000 giving speculators renewed confidence. However, the sustained defense of the $65,000 area has not been enough to break through the current resistance zone. Support levels are positioned at $75,000 in the near term and $73,200 at deeper levels, with Bitcoin maintaining its position above these key technical levels. BTC/USD remained stuck below "key resistance," including the cost basis of short-term holders (STHs) near $83,000, according to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin's dominance in the crypto market has increased significantly, now standing close to 59.5%, as capital shifts away from small altcoins toward Bitcoin. This trend typically occurs during uncertain times when investors seek less volatile assets within the crypto space. However, technical analysis reveals mixed signals, with Ted Pillows noting that Bitcoin remains under a descending resistance line on monthly charts, while the current structure shows a pattern seen in past cycles where Bitcoin broke trendlines and moved higher after retests. The broader chart structure still looks like a correction within a long-term uptrend, not a clear trend failure, though the latest analysis warns that Bitcoin market strength is begin driven by Strategy and speculators. Despite the pullback, the base case remains one of range-bound volatility rather than a decisive breakout across major asset classes.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin faces multiple macro factors that could impact its direction, including movements in US equity markets, fluctuations in oil prices, and inflation data. Monetary policy decisions, particularly the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, will guide expectations regarding interest rates and could shape Bitcoin's next move toward $78,000. The current technical setup suggests that traders will likely watch whether BTC starts moving into the new CME gap, while the lower reopening level may continue to define short-term tone if momentum fails to improve. Market participants remain watchful of potential setbacks amid ongoing macro uncertainties, with the timing of market bottoms remaining tricky to predict. Even with the US-Iran ceasefire due to officially expire within days, that event was unlikely to be definitive, as noted by QCP Capital.
