On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has issued a stark warning about Bitcoin's current market structure, revealing that roughly 7.75 million BTC, representing nearly 39% of the circulating supply, is currently held at a loss. According to Glassnode's latest data, the current supply overhang represents a classic structural feature of bear markets that are typically resolved only as weaker hands capitulate. The warning comes as Bitcoin trades around $77,000, down approximately 39% from its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000. Glassnode's accompanying chart showed the 7-day moving average of Bitcoin supply held at a loss surging to levels historically associated with major correction phases, including the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. However, recent on-chain data suggests the most severe wave of forced selling may already be easing, with daily realized losses falling to around $81.6 million and Net Realized Profit/Loss turning positive at roughly $122 million over a 24-hour period.
According to Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact despite recent market volatility. As reported by Cryptoverse, the current cycle topped on day 1,162, which aligns closely with historical patterns from previous cycles that topped on day 1,059 and day 1,168 from prior lows. Bitcoin has recently touched $82,800, representing a 40% decline from its October 6 record high of $126,080. The latest Bitcoin surge has caught investor attention, but Cowen emphasized that "the four-year cycle in Bitcoin remains intact. Price action is progressing with a timing similar to previous years, from peak to bottom. It's too early to say we've reached the end of the bear market." The countertrend rally to $82,800 peaked at the 200-day simple moving average in early May, a pattern Cowen highlighted as recurring with similar rejections occurring in both 2018 and 2022. Cowen noted that "the true cycle bottom may not be in yet," warning that the latest upswing may not mark the end of the bear market cycle.
The latest Bitcoin surge has caught investor attention, but technical analysis reveals critical resistance levels ahead. As reported by CoinTurk News, Bitcoin is encountering resistance near its 200-day simple moving average, a technical level that also triggered comparable rejections in both 2018 and 2022. The 200-day SMA serves as a key resistance indicator calculated by averaging closing prices over the past 200 days, widely used to gauge long-term trends. Cowen noted that "the true cycle bottom may not be in yet," warning that the latest upswing may not mark the end of the bear market cycle. Some countertrends have outlasted others over the years, with some playing out in over 20 weeks compared to the current 16-week span, which counters claims that the recent consolidation has been prolonged and suggests prices have bottomed. The Glassnode warning comes as Crypto Rover has warned that Bitcoin may have triggered a bearish "liquidity trap," with the move pushing a large portion of the network into underwater territory.
The upcoming June 2026 period represents a critical inflection point for Bitcoin's market direction. According to Cowen's analysis, June could decide whether BTC falls below $60,000 or tests $90,000, with the $60,000 level serving as a potential bottom test. This timing aligns with historical patterns where past bear markets in Bitcoin ended around December 2018 and November 2022, both occurring late in US midterm election years. Cowen maintains that the cyclical analysis suggests the current rally remains well within these established boundaries, warning against dismissing historical patterns due to current Wall Street narratives. In an earlier analysis, Cowen predicted that the next leg down could begin this month and extend to June, expecting the next bearish phase to push Bitcoin below the February 6 bottom of $60,000 to much lower prices. The Glassnode warning adds urgency to this outlook, as the current supply overhang suggests deeper bearish pressure may be ahead before a durable bottom forms.
Market analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's near-term trajectory, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the current cycle. While Cowen maintains a bearish outlook, expecting Bitcoin to revisit $60,000 later this year, another analyst known as Sykodelic presents a more bullish scenario. Sykodelic predicts Bitcoin may retest the $90,000 level in June, arguing that the current consolidation could pave the way for a renewed surge. This divergence in outlook is causing investors to closely watch the 200-day moving average, as a break above this level could favor bullish scenarios, while failure to break above could maintain market pressure in line with historical cycles. Cowen's analysis focuses on Bitcoin's ROI chart, noting that while BTC ROI from the peak is holding up better than previous cycles, it is still exhibiting similar behavior patterns. The recent data showing daily realized losses falling to around $81.6 million and Net Realized Profit/Loss turning positive again at roughly $122 million over a 24-hour period suggests the most severe forced selling wave may be easing, though the overall supply overhang remains concerning.
