Bitcoin traded near $63,490 on July 28, down 2.85% over 24 hours, as a broad risk-off move across Asian markets weighed heavily on cryptocurrency prices. The decline began after U.S. markets closed Monday and accelerated as South Korea's KOSPI fell more than 8% on Tuesday morning, forcing the Korea Exchange to suspend marketwide trading for 20 minutes due to a Level 1 circuit breaker activation. The KOSPI fell almost 10% during the session, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix lost more than 12%, with concerns centered on heavy AI spending, financing risks and growing competition from Chinese semiconductor companies. Japan's Nikkei also fell about 4%, following a 2.2% decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index during Monday's U.S. session, with Nvidia dropping 5%. Bitcoin dropped from nearly $65,000 to around $63,200 before recovering slightly, while ether, XRP and solana also weakened, placing BTC back inside the lower half of its recent $60,000–$66,000 range.
Bitcoin investors are confronting unprecedented market conditions as 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields have reached nearly 3%, marking the highest level in 17 years, according to reports from CoinDesk. This represents a significant shift in traditional safe-haven dynamics, as these bonds now offer investors 3% annual returns above inflation for the next three decades, backed by the U.S. government. The elevated real yield is traditionally viewed as a headwind for risk assets, creating an opportunity cost for holding non-yielding or riskier investments like cryptocurrency. Trading firm Mosaic Asset Company identified surging US Treasury yields as the central cause of the downturn, noting that significant moves were underway across the yield curve despite a weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index reading in the latest US inflation report. The two-year Treasury yield, which tends to lead market expectations on Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions, was highlighted as particularly significant at 4.31%, sitting well above the Federal Reserve's target range.
The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting on July 28 and 29, with interest-rate markets assigning a roughly 38% probability to a 25-basis-point increase before the decision. At its previous meeting on June 17, the Fed kept the federal funds target range at 3.5%–3.75% and said inflation remained above its 2% goal. Thursday brings two major U.S. releases at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, including the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product and the June Personal Income and Outlays report, which contains the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures inflation measures. A rate increase or more restrictive statement could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, conditions that often weigh on Bitcoin and other assets without fixed cash flows. Conversely, a rate hold accompanied by less restrictive guidance could help BTC challenge $65,000–$66,000 again, while cooler core PCE data could support that move.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net outflows of $11.64 million on July 27, according to SoSoValue data, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust recording the largest individual fund outflow at $8.82 million. The daily total was modest compared with the $240.08 million withdrawn on July 24, though another negative session shows that institutional demand remains uneven rather than firmly returning to sustained inflows. However, on-chain data present a different picture, with wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC adding 19,696 BTC over eight days, as reported by Santiment. The divergence suggests larger holders have accumulated while very small accounts have shown less urgency, though whale accumulation may provide support if those coins remain off exchanges. ETF activity has become an important source of marginal Bitcoin demand, with persistent inflows requiring authorized participants to create shares and source underlying exposure.
Bitcoin's immediate trend remains neutral to mildly bearish while price trades below $65,000–$66,000, with the relative strength index at 46.77, below its moving average of 53.49, showing short-term momentum has moved slightly towards sellers. The moving average convergence divergence indicator has weakened, with its histogram negative at about minus 104.93, while the MACD line near 219.58 remains below the signal line around 324.51. Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin's three-day Bollinger Bands were beginning to squeeze, which can precede a larger move but doesn't establish whether the eventual break will be higher or lower. The chart presents three immediate zones: Bitcoin must recover $65,000–$66,000 to improve its short-term structure, the $61,000 area is the first lower support identified by bearish Fibonacci setup, while $60,000 remains the main floor of the broader consolidation. A sustained daily close below $60,000 would weaken the range and expose the June lows near $58,000, while a close above $66,000 would invalidate part of the short-term bearish setup.
