U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their largest single-day net outflows since January 29, with $648.6 million in outflows across seven funds on Monday, according to data from SoSoValue. This extended last week's total net outflows of $1 billion, which ended a six-week positive streak. Among the funds, BlackRock's IBIT logged the largest outflows at $448.3 million, followed by $109.6 million from Ark & 21Shares' ARKB. Fidelity's FBTC reported $63.4 million in outflows, while funds from Bitwise, VanEck, Invesco, and Franklin Templeton also logged negative flows. As per Keyrock analysts, the six-week Bitcoin ETF inflow streak had broken, with funds recording over $995 million in net outflows after $3.47 billion in cumulative inflows from April 5 through May 10.
After weeks of gradual gains, bitcoin dropped below $76,000 over the weekend, hitting its lowest intraday level since April 30 at $76,025 on May 18, according to data from CoinGecko. However, the cryptocurrency has since recovered to trade around $77,000, recovering from the lows as it held near $77,000 after sliding from $83,000 to as low as $76,000. According to Zeus Research analyst Dominick John, the price decline reflects a short-term institutional risk-off move driven by profit-taking and macro uncertainty. John noted that bitcoin is in a consolidating phase amid macro-driven volatility, holding a key support zone around $76,000-$77,000. The latest data shows bitcoin clinging to $76,797 with just a -0.05% change, as the broader crypto market buckled under Iran geopolitical pressure.
Iran has introduced Hormuz Safe, a state-backed maritime insurance service that allows eligible shippers to pay premiums in Bitcoin, with coverage triggered after on-chain confirmation. The rollout was described as occurring around May 16-18, coinciding with bitcoin's recovery from the $76,000 lows. The program could target over $10 billion in annual revenue if it captures traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that handles about 20% of global seaborne crude. This development represents a significant use case for Bitcoin in international trade and maritime finance.
Over $300 million in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, with long traders absorbing the bulk of those losses, according to data from Coinglass. The catalyst was President Trump's announcement that he had directed U.S. troops to prepare for a "full, large scale assault" on Iran if an acceptable deal is not reached, after delaying a planned Tuesday strike at the request of Gulf leaders. Trading volume on Bitcoin surged 30% over the prior 24 hours, which typically signals indecision rather than conviction in a sideways market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped into "Extreme Fear" territory, historically marking either a capitulation floor or the beginning of a deeper breakdown.
Bitcoin's current structure is fragile but not yet broken, with the $76,000-$77,000 band becoming the battleground. Analysts at CryptoQuant have identified $65,900-$70,500 as the projected range for this cycle's bottom, using the Bitcoin HODL Waves indicator. "If $70,500 holds, we'll slowly grind out a bottom in the upper range. If it breaks, we'll need to re-evaluate lower support structures," a CryptoQuant analyst stated. On-chain data offers a counterpoint to the bearish sentiment, with wallets holding at least 100 BTC rising 11.2% year-over-year, climbing from 18,191 to 20,229 wallets. If Bitcoin defends $75,000 on a daily close, open interest could resolve to the upside, potentially triggering a relief rally back toward $82,000-$85,000.
