US spot-Bitcoin ETFs recorded their ninth-largest weekly outflow since their launch in early 2024, with $1.7 billion leaving funds in the five days through Monday, according to K33 Research. The timing was strategically significant as Bitcoin approached $83,000 - the average price at which ETF holders are roughly flat on their investment. As reported by Bloomberg, this selling pattern has created an uncomfortable dynamic where the price level that should attract buyers back into the market instead prompts some of the heaviest selling activity.
According to K33 Research, when Bitcoin trades near the price most ETF investors paid for it, the odds of a heavy outflow day rise to above 10% - compared with just 3% when prices are comfortably higher. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, explained that heavy outflow days are far more common when BTCUSD trades close to its cost basis, as market participants seek to avoid losses. The analysis reveals that investors approaching breakeven from above sell to avoid going underwater, while those approaching it from below sell to cut losses after deep drawdowns.
The $83,000 price level represents another closely monitored threshold in the market, as it's roughly where Bitcoin's 200-day moving average currently rests. According to analysts at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has historically tended to bump up against that threshold, as happened in March 2022, when it managed to rally until it hit that point. The coin is currently trading at around $77,600, significantly below the all-time highs of over $126,000.
Separately, K33's data showed that institutional participants reduced their Bitcoin ETF exposure by 26,733 tokens in the first quarter, while retail investors added 19,395 tokens. The institutional reduction was driven largely by funds like Millennium and Jane Street, which K33 attributed to compressing crypto yields and opportunities elsewhere. Outflows have continued this week, with investors pulling roughly $1.1 billion from funds through Wednesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
