Bitcoin remains flat near $77,000 with only slight daily gains, showing signs of stabilization after the sharp decline triggered by President Trump's Iran warnings. According to latest market data, BTC is trading around $77,000, up only slightly over the past 24 hours, as traders remain cautious about the correction's end. The cryptocurrency failed to hold above the critical $80,000 level during last week's test, with intraday sellers capping bounces and maintaining downward pressure. The market structure shows Bitcoin below all major exponential moving averages, sitting well beneath the 20-hour EMA at $77,580, 50-hour at $78,120, 100-hour at $78,767, and 200-hour at $79,350. However, several altcoins are already turning green, with coins like Hyperliquid ($HYPE), Zcash ($ZEC), Bitcoin Cash ($BCH), and Chainlink ($LINK) outperforming the broader market, suggesting traders are slowly returning to risk assets.
The crypto market reversal began after President Trump signalled that a potential Iran deal may still be possible, easing immediate market fears that had triggered the sharp decline. According to Reuters, Gulf and European markets moved higher after Trump's comments calmed investor nerves, while oil prices also eased from recent highs. The warning had come after stalled diplomatic talks and a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, immediately rattling financial markets. Bitcoin was trading at roughly $76,780 by early Monday, down about 1.55% over the prior 24 hours following the initial sell-off. The cryptocurrency broke below all major exponential moving averages, sitting well beneath the 20-hour EMA at $77,580, 50-hour at $78,120, 100-hour at $78,767, and 200-hour at $79,350.
Bitcoin's technical structure shows classic range behavior after a failed breakout, with the daily chart remaining neutral but leaning soft. According to latest analysis, support sits around 75.8-76.5k and resistance near 79-80k, with the cryptocurrency currently below the 20-EMA but above the 50-EMA. The MACD indicators continue to reinforce downside pressure as the line sits at negative 359, the signal at negative 243, and the histogram at negative 116. However, the $77,800 level held particular significance as it marked the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the March low to the April high. The current market setup shows Bitcoin holding above the $77K zone is positive, but the market remains fragile with traders watching whether BTC can reclaim stronger resistance levels and bring stronger momentum back to the market. Volatility remains lively with D1 ATR at $2k and H1 ATR at $400, meaning levels can be tested quickly and reclaimed rapidly.
Despite the stabilization, Bitfinex analysts warn that weak demand for spot ETFs has left crypto liquidity at its worst since February, creating severe structural vulnerabilities. According to a new Bitfinex report, on-chain capital flows sit at a meager $2.8 billion—a stark contrast to the $10 billion typically required to sustain a durable breakout. The analysts note that the breach below the critical $78,000 threshold exposes severe structural rot beneath the surface of the crypto market. They warn that Bitcoin is highly vulnerable to exogenous shocks and a potential 'higher-for-longer' interest rate regime at a time when liquidity conditions have deteriorated to their worst levels since February. Without aggressive institutional conviction, the shelf life of this current recovery now hinges almost entirely on whether fresh, net capital can be injected into the market in the coming days.
Despite the price stabilization, market sentiment indicators suggest potential for continued recovery. Data from Santiment shows bearish Bitcoin commentary now exceeds bullish posts for the first time since April 21. The analytics firm treats this shift as a contrarian indicator, stating that "since crypto historically moves opposite to the crowd's expectations, this level of bearishness from retail is a great sign." As reported by Santiment, the firm expects that "as small traders sell off their coins as a reaction to this mild downswing, probabilities of a rebound are heightened while most people expect a further drop." However, prediction markets now price the odds of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end at roughly 10-20%—far below the bullish projections offered by firms like Bernstein and Standard Chartered, suggesting a high degree of skepticism about the sustainability of crypto's bull market. The current market setup shows risk appetite constrained with a fearful tape and falling DeFi fee activity, limiting follow-through on bounces until liquidity and sentiment improve.
