Bitcoin has crossed above $79,000 over the weekend and is now sitting at around $77,000, marking the highest the token has traded since an early February selloff. The cryptocurrency is currently trading down near $76,800 on Tuesday after facing rejection from key resistance zones, according to latest market data. The latest surge represents a 15% climb over the past month, with Bitcoin maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it stays above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) clustered around $73,486 and $75,640 respectively. Bitcoin is riding the upper boundary of the parallel channel, whose top now offers nearby support at about $75,680. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at roughly $74,487 underpins the structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering near 57 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is just above the zero line, indicating momentum still hints at a moderate upside tilt. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the channel top near $75,680, reinforced by the 100-day EMA at $75,640, with deeper cushioning zones at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $74,487 and the 50-day EMA near $73,486 before the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around $68,950 and the lower channel boundary close to $62,950 come into play.
The latest Bitcoin rally has been significantly boosted by billionaire Michael Saylor's firm Strategy, which has emerged as one of the most active institutional buyers in the market. Strategy acquired over 100,000 Bitcoin in March and April, worth over $7.7 billion at current prices, with the company surpassing BlackRock's popular Bitcoin ETF in total Bitcoin holdings during this buying spree. However, the pace of acquisition has recently slowed to 3,273 Bitcoin for $255 million last week, down from the previous accelerated pace. This slowdown may be attributed to slowing sales of Strategy's perpetual preferred shares (STRC), which the company uses to fund Bitcoin purchases. The STRC product, launched in July 2025, pays an 11.5% dividend, but when shares dip below par, as they are currently, it becomes more expensive for Strategy to issue new shares. The company has also proposed moving to twice-monthly dividend payments rather than monthly, partly to spread out Bitcoin purchases more evenly throughout the month. Strategy's Bitcoin treasury has now climbed to a record $63.46 billion as of April 26, with the company holding 815,061 BTC across 107 purchase events at an average cost of $75,528 per coin.
The market showed a mix of bullish sentiment and caution from participants, with investors balancing risk and capital allocation, according to the Glassnode report. As noted by AMBCrypto, holders have been eager to take profits on the way up, further stalling any recovery attempts. Glassnode reported that short-term holders realized profit had spiked to $4.4 million per hour, nearly three times the $1.5 million threshold that marked prior local tops this year. This behavior pattern differs from previous cycles where capital flowed more freely into Bitcoin during market bottoms, suggesting current market dynamics may be influenced by different investor sentiment and profit-taking strategies. The $80.1K resistance level now serves as the immediate ceiling, where over 54% of recent buyers would be sitting on profit, historically the zone where distribution selling has exhausted bear market rallies.
According to the latest Glassnode Weekly Market Pulse report, Bitcoin spot CVD surged 199%, indicating robust bullish momentum in the market. The report highlighted strong increase in perpetual CVD showing buy-side aggression from leveraged traders, while funding rates indicated a decrease in bearish positioning. However, as reported by AMBCrypto, the options market presented a more cautious outlook with traders anticipating higher future volatility through increased volatility spreads. The recovery runs across multiple channels simultaneously, with three straight weeks of billion-dollar inflow streaks and $1.2 billion in crypto investment product inflows last week alone, according to CoinShares data. Recent technical analysis shows notable flows into BTC September 2026 $90,000 calls, pointing to a gradual return of upside exposure and reduced downside hedging despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The April 28-29 FOMC meeting has emerged as the first hard test to determine whether the institutional bid that has been built over four weeks can hold its ground. CoinShares explicitly tied current investor caution to that decision window, with the market structure data explaining that Bitcoin is pressing into the $80.1K zone where profit-taking risks rise significantly. A Fed outcome that leaves financial conditions roughly unchanged removes the largest near-term macro headwind, while a hawkish surprise or language that tightens the rate-cut timeline further hands sellers exactly the external trigger they need to act on elevated profit readings. The bull case rests on the Fed passing without adding fresh macro stress, weekly product inflows holding near or above $1 billion, US ETF demand re-accelerating past the April 27 wobble, and Coinbase spot activity closing the gap with offshore venues. In the bear case scenario, a dovish or benign Fed outcome, resumed $1B+ weekly inflows, stronger Coinbase participation, and a reclaim of $80.1K would shift the market structure from 'rally on trial' to a confirmed demand regime.
