Prediction markets are pricing an aggressive move lower for Bitcoin, with the most-backed bets calling for Bitcoin to fall below $60,000 in June. On Polymarket, the fastest-growing bet is Bitcoin below $60,000, now near 56% and up sharply on the week. Lower strikes also drew money, with below $57,500 near 34% and below $55,000 near 21%. On Kalshi, a separate market on how low Bitcoin goes this year tells a similar story, with below $60,000 sitting near 81% and below $55,000 near 76%. These bearish calls are backed by on-chain data showing $1.11 billion in short liquidation leverage above the current price near $63,689, while $336 million in long liquidation leverage remains below at $57,446.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has warned that Bitcoin's current downturn may extend into early 2027, based on on-chain profit and loss data. In a post on X on May 29, Ju wrote that investors' profit and loss, or PnL, typically declines for about 18 months when profit-taking sets off a chain reaction. Using the trend reversal in October 2025 as a reference point, the bear market could continue until early 2027, he wrote. The trend change started in October 2025, placing a potential bear market bottom in early 2027 based on historical patterns from previous bear cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Recent developments have added to market uncertainty, with the ongoing US-Iran conflict creating additional pressure on Bitcoin prices. Recent reports show Bitcoin stabilizing near $73,000 after a three-day slide, with analysts watching whether buyers can hold key support levels.
Veteran analyst MichaelXBT has issued a stark warning about Bitcoin's $70,000 support level, stating that a confirmed break below this critical threshold would likely trigger the largest weekly red candle in Bitcoin's history. The analyst points to a decade-old rising wedge pattern that began in 2017, with the lower support now positioned near $70,000 after holding through the FTX crash in November 2022 when Bitcoin hit $15,400. Bitcoin has successfully bounced back from the $70,000 zone multiple times in 2026, but MichaelXBT warns that the next test could end differently. The wedge pattern, formed by two converging trendlines moving upward with the lower one rising faster than the upper, typically signals when bullish momentum has run out when prices break below the lower line.
The current market shows signs of divergence rather than clean directional movement, with Bitcoin dominance under 60% indicating capital rotating out of Bitcoin without cleanly moving into altcoins. The Fear and Greed Index sits in extreme fear around 23-26, reflecting real panic in the market. The crypto market as a whole has declined to around $2.41 trillion and shows an 84% correlation with the Dow, indicating this is a macro-driven selloff rather than a crypto-specific implosion. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled their largest single-week outflow of the year, but the $2.97 billion that left represents under 8% of the $36 billion the category absorbed in its first full year. This pattern of regulated capital holding through a drawdown rather than fleeing is unprecedented in previous Bitcoin cycles, suggesting a structural floor of long-term institutional demand.
Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on June 2, 2026, trading near $69,200 at its lowest open since April. This represents a 45% decline from Bitcoin's October 2025 cycle high of $126,296, though the current drawdown remains shallower than previous full bear markets. As reported by crypto.news, bearish social commentary on Bitcoin hit its highest level in 2026 earlier in April as spot demand weakened. The reversal signal Ju describes requires a specific combination: unrealized profit margins must begin rising while realized profits fall simultaneously, indicating that selling pressure is exhausting itself and buyers are regaining control. Glassnode data supports the bearish case, putting Bitcoin's realized price near $53,796 while spot trades near $64,270, with the realized price acting as a floor in past downturns. The $55,000 zone represents a key downside target based on this on-chain data.
