President Donald Trump's meeting with Senate Republicans on Thursday failed to unlock the stalled CLARITY Act, with no revised text released and Polymarket traders cutting the bill's 2026 passage odds to 32%. As reported by X, updated legislative text remains elusive following the White House meeting, where Trump and Republican senators discussed ethics rules tied to the legislation. Sen. Bernie Moreno told reporters that lawmakers would release the plan once the president received a briefing, adding that journalists would have "a lot of reading to do." Sen. Cynthia Lummis also expressed hope that the language would become public after the White House discussion, although she did not offer a firm timetable. Industry leaders now expect the text to arrive next week, extending a delay around one of Washington's most closely watched crypto bills.
Democratic opposition remains focused on ethics rules and consumer protections, with Sen. Ruben Gallego telling POLITICO that Republicans had presented ethics language his party could not support. As reported by POLITICO, Gallego linked the dispute to Trump's business interests in the crypto sector and warned that the proposal would not attract the Democratic votes needed for passage. "At the end of the day, we don't have strong ethics," Gallego said. "I don't care what the president says. You're not going to have the Democratic votes." After reviewing the Republican proposal, Gallego described it as "very weak," arguing that it gave the president considerable freedom while offering limited consumer protections. A Democratic Senate aide also told POLITICO that the plan taken to the White House fell short of what Democrats would accept, with Democratic lawmakers having neither reviewed nor approved the draft discussed during Thursday's talks.
Industry executives reiterated their support during a House hearing Friday marking one year since the chamber passed the legislation. As reported by crypto.news, Nova Labs executive Sarah Aberg told lawmakers that regulatory uncertainty delayed investment in the Helium wireless network after the SEC sued the company in a case that was later settled. Bullish executive Randy Abernethy said companies need "a rule book" that brings digital asset markets under U.S. oversight rather than driving firms abroad. WisdomTree's Ryan Louvar said legislation would create durable rules that survive changes in administrations, while Coin Center's Jason Sommensatto argued the bill protects software developers without weakening anti-money laundering or investor safeguards.
Senate leadership needs 60 votes, but the Republican coalition is already fractured with Senators Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) expected to oppose CLARITY as well. As reported by crypto.news, Senator McConnell has missed votes due to an ongoing medical issue, and the death of Senator Lindsey Graham at 71 further narrows an already thin Republican majority. By Galaxy Digital analyst Alex Thorn's calculation, leadership may need as many as nine Democratic crossovers to reach the threshold. Senators Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) voted yes in committee but explicitly characterized those votes as conditional, not floor commitments. The House passed the bill with more than 70 Democrats crossing over, making it the most bipartisan crypto legislation ever introduced, yet it has failed to advance through the Senate despite clearing the Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14, 2026.
Polymarket traders have lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 32%, down from earlier predictions of 41% and recent 34% odds. As reported by crypto.news, the odds reflect doubts about the bill's prospects despite the White House talks, with negotiations over ethics rules and the limited number of legislative days before the August recess weighing on market confidence. Prediction markets have priced 2026 passage in the mid-20s to upper-30s percent range, down from above 70% earlier in the year, and Galaxy's research head cut his estimate to roughly 50% from 75% in late May. With Congress approaching its August recess and only a limited number of legislative weeks remaining afterward, traders appear increasingly doubtful the bill will reach the president's desk before the end of the year.
Despite the legislative stalemate, the crypto market continues operating with the SEC and CFTC joint interpretation of March 17, 2026, which classified 16 named digital assets including Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP as digital commodities under a five-category taxonomy. As reported by Crypto Week, spot volumes on centralized exchanges rose for the first time in five months in June, climbing 15.3% to $1.11 trillion, and real-world-asset perpetual volumes hit a record $311 billion. Tokenized Treasury products passed $15 billion, with the industry not waiting for permission to operate. The absence of CLARITY has not stopped the market from functioning, but it has created regulatory uncertainty that firms cannot build durable compliance programs against. The industry needs CLARITY to stop rebuilding its legal assumptions every time an administration changes, though the market operates without it for now.
