Solana (SOL) has fallen nearly 4% to around $74 after failing to hold above the $76.50-$77 resistance area on July 17, as a global technology sell-off and leveraged long liquidations have pushed traders toward caution. According to crypto.news data, Solana price has reached the lower Bollinger Band at $74.33 on the 4-hour chart, with the middle band at $76.51 now serving as immediate resistance while the upper band sits at $78.69. The decline was accelerated by semiconductor shares leading losses across global markets, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.8%, Japan's Nikkei 225 off 4%, and Taiwan's benchmark plunging more than 6%. Strong U.S. data added pressure on speculative assets, with initial unemployment claims falling to 208,000 from 216,000 and June retail sales rising 0.2%, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.60% and the dollar strengthened, raising the cost of holding high-beta assets.
Solana (SOL) has broken beneath an ascending trendline and is currently testing the $74 support level, with the 4-hour chart showing price has reached the lower Bollinger Band at $74.33 after forming a sequence of lower highs since its July 4 peak near $83. According to crypto.news data, Solana traded near $76.3 on July 13 after slipping almost 1% over the previous 24 hours, remaining below the $80 psychological barrier as rising U.S. Treasury yields and persistent expectations of higher interest rates continue to pressure high-beta crypto assets. The 4-hour relative strength index has dropped to 36.58, below its signal average of 45.48 but still above the oversold threshold of 30. A 4-hour close above the midpoint would give buyers another chance to test the $78–$80 region, with analyst SatoshiOwl noting that "Hold here and we could see a relief bounce back toward $78–$80. Lose it, and a deeper flush becomes much more likely."
Analyst Ali Martinez argues that Solana has regained a bullish structure after its SuperTrend indicator flipped positive for the first time since October, writing that "If buying pressure continues to build, $SOL could rally toward $96 or even $121. However, $60 remains the key level to watch." According to his analysis, a decisive push through the $80-$81.5 resistance zone could trigger forced buying from bearish positions, while the largest long liquidation pockets remain clustered around the $76-$76.5 region, making that zone an important area for bulls to defend. Crypto trader Ansem expects Solana's (SOL) price to nearly double from current levels, forecasting a climb toward $150 as he calls for a bullish breakout in the coming months, viewing the $84 area as the top of Solana's range and $150 as the eventual target. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe also expects a sharp move higher, identifying $76.6 as the level Solana must hold to confirm a continuation higher, with $100+ likely in the coming 1-2 months.
Network fundamentals have improved significantly with active addresses climbing toward seven million, while anticipation continues to build ahead of the Alpenglow upgrade, which is expected to reduce transaction finality to around 150 milliseconds later this quarter. Solana has also strengthened its institutional footprint through its partnership with SBI Holdings to expand on-chain financial infrastructure in Japan, while tokenized real-world assets on the network have grown to roughly $3.3 billion. Institutional demand has provided only limited relief, with U.S. spot Solana exchange-traded funds attracting $8.36 million on July 6, their strongest daily intake in almost two months, per data from SoSoValue. However, the inflow was not enough to prevent SOL from retreating from its early-July high near $83. The declining 100-day moving average around $80 represents the first major technical barrier, and failure to clear that level could keep SOL trapped inside its multi-week consolidation range.
CoinGlass' three-day liquidation heatmap places the nearest large pools of leveraged positions above the market, with dense clusters sitting near $76.50-$76.70, $78, and $78.70, making those levels possible price magnets if SOL rebounds. A move through $76.70 could liquidate short positions and accelerate a recovery toward $78. A break below $74 would expose the daily Supertrend support at $69.60 and deepen downside risks, with the heatmap showing less concentrated liquidity immediately beneath the current price, leaving room for a quicker decline toward $72 before the daily Supertrend level near $69.62 comes into play. A loss of $69.62 would invalidate the remaining bullish daily setup and expose the June recovery base between $64 and $66. Recent selling pressure has also been reinforced by large token movements, including a $15.14 million onchain SOL token move from Alameda Research that resulted in just over $10 million in long liquidations. Any bullish breakout remains dependent on improving macro conditions, with rising Treasury yields increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
