Senator Cynthia Lummis delivered a stark warning at the Bitcoin 2026 conference on April 27 that the CLARITY Act's political alignment may not persist beyond the current window. According to crypto.news, Lummis told attendees that "this kind of support is rare in Washington and may not last long." She emphasized that the current moment represents a rare coincidence: the House has passed the CLARITY Act 294 to 134, the Senate Agriculture Committee has cleared its version, and the White House under Trump has publicly backed the bill as a national priority. Lummis, who chairs the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets and has announced she will not seek re-election, warned that "this specific configuration of institutional will can be maintained" depends on the May markup window being successfully navigated.
Senator Thom Tillis is now actively pushing to move the CLARITY Act into the Senate Banking Committee's formal markup stage as soon as possible, according to crypto.news. Speaking in Congress, Tillis told colleagues there is "significant consensus" on the path forward and pledged to publish updated legislative text on stablecoin yield "four to five days" before any scheduled hearing. He emphasized that "most concerns from the banking sector regarding the risks associated with stablecoin yield have been addressed" in recent negotiations, urging any institutions with remaining objections to "participate in good faith to improve the legislation." The compromise language would prohibit digital asset providers from offering yield "directly or indirectly on stablecoin balances" in ways that are economically equivalent to bank interest, while still permitting narrowly defined, activity-based rewards tied to payments or platform use.
More than 120 crypto organizations including Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken, and Andreessen Horowitz have sent a joint letter to the Senate Banking Committee demanding an immediate CLARITY Act markup. According to reports from crypto.news, the letter was submitted by the Crypto Council for Innovation and the Blockchain Association on April 23, representing what the industry describes as the most coordinated pressure campaign yet. The coalition includes major players such as Circle, Uniswap Labs, Chainlink Labs, OKX, Paradigm, and Galaxy Digital, along with advocacy groups and state blockchain associations. The April 25 event at Mar-a-Lago now gives the Senate Banking Committee explicit White House pressure to move, with Senate Banking Committee Republicans aware that publicly resisting a Trump-backed bill carries its own political cost.
The Senate Banking Committee failed to schedule a CLARITY Act markup in April, officially missing the target window after the Kevin Warsh Fed chair confirmation process consumed most of the committee's operational time. As reported by crypto.news, Senator Bernie Moreno has publicly warned that if the bill does not clear the Senate floor by the end of May, digital asset legislation may not advance before the midterm election cycle closes the window, possibly until 2030. With Congress breaking for Memorial Day recess on May 21, the bill now needs to complete a Banking Committee markup, a 60-vote Senate floor vote, and three reconciliation steps in under four working weeks. The committee's most pressing competing obligation has now been removed following Tillis's decision to end his Warsh block on April 27, potentially opening a direct path for a first-week-of-May markup. According to crypto.news, Lummis said key provisions are almost 99% resolved and the earliest possible markup is the week of May 11, after the Senate returns from its upcoming weeklong recess.
According to Ainvest News, XRP investment products recorded approximately $119.6 million in net weekly inflows for the week ending April 4, 2026, representing the strongest weekly inflow since mid-December and accounting for around 53% of all global crypto fund inflows that week. A survey of institutional investors found that 65% said regulatory clarity is the one thing holding them back from adding XRP, with only 25% planning to do so in 2026. Ainvest News notes that the $119M weekly inflow is a tangible manifestation of capital waiting in the wings, ready to move only if the CLARITY Act provides the legal certainty it demands. *Polymarket currently prices passage odds at approximately 46%**, down sharply from 82% earlier in the year, with the probability of passage this year now roughly 50-50. The immediate price action hinges on a single, high-stakes catalyst: the Senate Banking Committee markup, with the bear case scenario involving XRP staying between $1.00 and $1.50 for the rest of 2026 if the Act doesn't become law, as XRP's commodity classification would remain a regulatory opinion without federal legal backing.
According to Ainvest News, the immediate price action hinges on a single, high-stakes catalyst: the Senate Banking Committee markup. The bear case scenario involves XRP staying between $1.00 and $1.50 for the rest of 2026 if the Act doesn't become law, as XRP's commodity classification would remain a regulatory opinion without federal legal backing. The bull case scenario forecasts XRP could hit $5-10 by late 2026 if the CLARITY Act passes, removing a major regulatory overhang and unlocking pent-up institutional demand. Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz said in a podcast this week that he believes the CLARITY Act will reach committee in early May and could land on Trump's desk by June, while Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently revised his forecast to the end of May, reflecting a shift to less optimism about the timeline. TD Cowen is more pessimistic, putting current passage odds at one-in-three, citing CFTC staffing gaps, prediction market politics, and Iran-related crypto payment concerns as additional hurdles beyond the calendar.
