Export-focused textile stocks experienced significant gains on Monday, February 9, with Gokaldas Exports leading the pack at 6.5% to ₹832.15 per share, while Arvind shares surged around 7% to ₹393.90. According to Moneycontrol, Raymond Lifestyle shares rose nearly 5%, and KPR Mill gained around 4%. The rally extended the bull run that began following the trade deal announcement last week, with textile stocks having zoomed up to 40% in a week amid trade deal optimism. As per Moneycontrol, this move is expected to bring major relief to export-oriented companies whose stocks earlier saw significant decline after US hiked tariffs on Indian exports to 50%. However, Indian textile exporters such as Gokuldas Exports, KPR Mills and Arvind Ltd, which saw shares slip up to 7% on Monday following the Bangladesh-US joint statement, recovered and closed up to 4% higher after Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal's latest comments.
India and US are expected to finalise the interim trade deal framework by the end of March, with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal confirming that the deal will include provisions similar to the Bangladesh-US accord. As per The Business Standard, Goyal stated that "Bangladesh has received a benefit under its trade deal with the US of exporting textiles and garments [in quota] at zero reciprocal duty if they purchase raw materials from the US. India has a similar benefit. The fine print of the India-US deal will have details." Under the zero reciprocal duty provision, the volume of duty-free textile and apparel exports from Bangladesh to the US is determined based on Dhaka's imports of "US-produced cotton and man-made fibre textile inputs." Officials indicated that the India-US zero-duty provision could give Indian textiles a bigger advantage than Bangladesh, as India's much larger spinning capacity allows higher utilisation of US cotton and potentially a bigger quota. India's spinning industry is among the largest globally, and Bangladesh is a key importer of Indian yarn.
The US remains the biggest destination for India's textile exports, with India exporting $8.3 billion worth of textiles to the US in FY25, representing 9.6% of total exports to the nation, according to CNBC TV18. In the ongoing financial year, exports as of November 2025 stood at $5.1 billion, accounting for 8.6% of total exports. India's textiles sector accounts for the fourth largest exported goods to the US after electronics, diamond and jewellery, and pharmaceutical products. The ministry expects the trade agreement to be crucial in helping India reach its export goal of $100 billion by 2030, with the US expected to account for over one-fifth of the target. Recent analysis suggests that India now faces an 18% tariff on goods entering the American market, lower than many of its Asian competitors, including Vietnam and China. The projected increase in India's trade surplus with the US, which stood at approximately $40.8 billion in FY25, is expected to surpass $90 billion annually under the new agreement, with SBI reports forecasting this optimism.
According to CNBC TV18, companies with significant US market exposure led the rally. Gokaldas Exports has 70% market exposure to the US, followed by Welspun Living at 65%, Indo Count Industries at 70%, and Pearl Global Industries at 50%. Arvind Ltd has 30% exposure to the US market. Notably, Pearl Global Industries, which has significant exposure to the US market, dropped 2.64% to ₹1786.2 per share on the BSE, despite the positive sector sentiment. The ministry expects the deal to influence global buyers' sourcing strategies and improve cost competitiveness for the textile industry.
According to Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS, Gokaldas Exports stands out as a direct play on US apparel demand, while Pearl Global Industries offers leverage to garment exports with improving scale, as reported by Mint. In home textiles, Indo Count Industries and Welspun Living are well-positioned given their long-standing US retailer relationships. However, the trade deal faces significant challenges as India commits to purchase $500 billion of US goods over the next five years, effectively doubling current import levels. Economists express skepticism regarding this commitment's feasibility, with some characterizing it as "aspirational rather than realistic" and warning it could distort commercial procurement, potentially leading to inefficiencies and placing undue pressure on India's currency and trade balance. The agreement maintains asymmetrical trade terms, with the US retaining 18% tariffs on Indian goods while India eliminates tariffs on US industrial and agricultural products, potentially placing undue pressure on India's currency and trade balance.
