TD Cowen raised its price target on Strategy (MSTR) to $400 from $395 on Monday, citing accelerating bitcoin accumulation and balance sheet improvements. The stock currently trades at $165.42 with a market cap of $57.7 billion, down 9.65% over the past week and 59.7% over the past year. According to reports from Investing.com, the note was authored by analyst Lance Vitanza and associate Jonnathan Navarrete, who maintained a Buy rating on the stock. The $5 target increase was driven by upward revisions to TD Cowen's 2026 BTC Yield and BTC Dollar Gain estimates after treasury activity since the last earnings call surpassed earlier models. The target represents a modest but sound move that underscores Wall Street's lingering faith in one of the most audacious corporate experiments of the decade.
Strategy has already acquired more bitcoin partway through the second quarter than TD Cowen had modeled for the entire quarter. As reported by The Block, the firm now forecasts roughly 100,000 BTC purchased in Q2, with preferred equity issuance dominating capital raises in the second quarter. Nearly all proceeds have been deployed directly into bitcoin purchases, with Strategy holding 843,738 BTC — more than 4% of the 21 million bitcoin supply cap. Bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares reached 2.21x as of May 17, up from 1.95x at the end of 2025. The company's ability to keep stacking sats while tidying its capital structure suggests resilience that bulls find reassuring, even as Bitcoin's price action has cooled from last year's highs.
The accelerated bitcoin accumulation has lifted full-year BTC Yield projections to 19.8% from 18.2% and full-year BTC Dollar Gain estimates to $15.16 billion from $13.89 billion. According to The Block, TD Cowen's $400 price target applies a 3x multiple to 2026 BTC Dollar Gain of $15.16 billion, then adds projected year-end bitcoin holdings of $132.9 billion and subtracts $3.5 billion in debt and $15.5 billion in preferred equity obligations. The company raised roughly $1.95 billion through STRC series preferred equity in Q2 2026 with far less dilution to common shareholders than straight equity offerings would have caused. Strategy acquired 24,869 BTC for roughly $2.01 billion from May 11 to May 17, paying an average of $80,985 per Bitcoin including fees and expenses. Company filings show Strategy has spent roughly $63.87 billion building its Bitcoin position at an average acquisition cost of about $75,700 per coin.
The second driver of the target raise was Strategy's repurchase of roughly $1.5 billion of out-of-the-money convertible notes at an approximately 8% discount to face value. As reported by The Block, TD Cowen called the transaction accretive, reducing future dilution risk from conversions and improving overall credit metrics. The notes will be cancelled after settlement around May 19, halving the outstanding 2029 tranche and leaving roughly $1.5 billion remaining. Funding is expected to come from cash reserves, at-the-market equity sales, or even selective Bitcoin sales—a flexible toolkit that keeps options open. This deleveraging comes as Bitcoin itself hovers near levels that test conviction, with the company demonstrating opportunistic management by retiring some convertible debt at a discount when the stock is lower.
MSTR closed at $165.42 on Monday, down roughly 63% from its 52-week high of $455.90, leaving TD Cowen's target implying more than 140% upside from current levels. According to Benzinga, the stock dropped 6% to $165 on Monday as price broke below the critical 20 EMA at $173.64 and is now pressing directly on the 50 EMA at $161.54 and Supertrend at $158.35 cluster. The golden supply zone at $190–$200 rejected price twice in two weeks, and everything now hinges on $158–$162 holding as support. This EMA and Supertrend confluence is the last structural defense before price revisits the $142 demand zone below. The trajectory represents a core validation of Strategy's financing model, with bitcoin holdings continuing to outpace share issuance even as dilution rises, though sustained success will hinge on execution, regulatory clarity around digital assets, and broader macroeconomic currents.
