FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd shares surged 7% to hit a 4-year high of ₹301.30 on Thursday, following the company's ambitious FY30 growth projections unveiled at its Annual Investor Day 2026. The stock opened at ₹282.50 and touched an intraday high of ₹301.30 per share, with an intraday low of ₹282.10. According to Business Standard, the stock hit an over four-year high at ₹301.30, rallying 7 per cent on BSE in Thursday's intra-day trade amid heavy volumes. Over the past two trading days, shares have gained 11%, while they have soared 37% from their calendar year low of ₹218.75 touched in March 2026. The stock is currently trading at its highest point since April 2022, with the average trading volumes more than doubling as 21.64 million equity shares changed hands across NSE and BSE. At 11:48 AM, Nykaa stock quoted 7 per cent higher at ₹300.70 on the BSE, outperforming the BSE Sensex which was down 0.12 per cent at 77,064.
Nuvama Institutional Equities and Morgan Stanley have issued bullish calls on Nykaa, reiterating positive stances on the company's ambitious growth roadmap through FY30. Nuvama turned constructive following Nykaa's recent analyst day, noting that management is targeting USD over 5 billion GMV by FY30E (growing 2.5 times) coupled with 4–5 times EBITDA scale-up. The brokerage emphasized that this expansion is expected to translate into EBITDA margin of early to mid-teens from current 7.7 per cent and over 40 per cent RoCE. Nuvama raised its target price to ₹351 from ₹321 earlier, factoring in the upbeat outlook and tweaked FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates by over 4.2 per cent and over 7.3 per cent respectively. Similarly, Morgan Stanley maintained its "Overweight" rating and raised its target price to ₹321 from ₹286, citing stronger-than-expected growth and margin guidance. The global brokerage highlighted that consolidated EBITDA margin is targeted to improve to early-mid teens by FY30 from 7.5 per cent in FY26. However, Macquarie maintained an 'underperform' rating with a target price of ₹210, representing a downside of 29.5% from the closing price of ₹298.1, citing concerns about acceleration in rest-of-beauty GMV growth momentum and scale constraints in expanding Dot & Key brand footprint. Motilal Oswal Financial Services has maintained a 'Neutral' rating with a target price of ₹310, implying a modest upside of around 4% from current levels, noting that most positives are already priced in limiting near-term upside.
At its investor day event, Nykaa announced it is targeting 2-3x revenue growth by FY30, translating into 4-5x EBITDA growth with EBITDA margins in the low-to-mid teens range. The company expects this growth to be driven by disciplined execution, operating leverage, and capital-efficient investments, enabling sustained margin expansion and a ROCE of over 40%. The company aims to achieve a $5 billion gross merchandise value (GMV) by FY30, positioning itself as a beauty and lifestyle business worth more than $5 billion. Nykaa is also targeting revenue growth of 2.5x-3x by FY30 while aiming for EBITDA to increase 4x-5x, with EBITDA margins expected to reach the low-to-mid teens over the next five years. For context, Nykaa expects EBITDA margins of around 7.5% in FY26. The company's beauty and personal care (BPC) business exited FY26 at approximately ₹15,000 crore GMV, having doubled both GMV and revenue over the last three years while maintaining profitability. By FY30, Nykaa aims to grow GMV by 3-3.5X with potential high single-digit EBITDA margins and progressing towards 10%+ steady-state profitability. According to Jefferies, the company is targeting revenue/GMV growth of 25% or higher across segments, with improving profitability, with beauty to compound via omnichannel, ads, and faster fulfilment, while wellness to add premium, higher margin adjacencies.
For the fourth quarter (January to March 2026) of financial year 2025-2026, Nykaa demonstrated strong financial momentum with GMV growing 28% year-on-year and net revenue increasing 28% to ₹2,648 crore from ₹2,062 crore in the corresponding period last year. The company reported a net profit that more than quadrupled to ₹79 crore in Q4, compared to ₹19 crore a year earlier. Revenue from operations rose 28.4% to ₹2,648 crore from ₹2,062 crore in the corresponding period last year. According to JM Financial Institutional Securities, the brokerage expects Nykaa to sustain strong revenue growth with continued margin expansion, raising Fashion revenue growth estimates to 25% and 22% for FY27 and FY28 respectively, 1-3% higher than previous estimates. The improvement is mainly due to lower marketing spends and strong operating leverage. The brokerage firm expects Nykaa to sustain growth momentum with higher BPC profits getting unburdened of the losses in eB2B gradually and Fashion also starting to contribute to profitability in FY27 itself. JM Financial raised EBITDA estimates by 3-4% over FY27-28E, leading to 30-40bps increase in EBITDA margin estimates, with profit after tax estimates increasing by 2-4% over FY27-28 due to these changes. EBITDA reached ₹232.07 crore, up 63.09% YoY, with EBITDA margins expanding to a record 8.4% (up from 6.5% in Q4 FY25), driven by efficiency across both beauty and fashion segments.
According to latest brokerage reports, Nykaa has outlined ambitious expansion plans across all verticals. Fashion is expected to deliver 3-3.5 times growth in GMV, while Superstore is expected to surpass ₹35 billion GMV by FY30 (3-4 times). The company's House of Nykaa is expected to scale to over ₹50 billion NSV by FY30, supported by established labels and new brand incubation. Nykaa Man could clock 4-5 times expansion, with the company planning to expand its omni-channel footprint to 600+ beauty stores from 313 stores currently. The beauty business will benefit from growing demand for premium, luxury and Korean beauty products, with the company launching more than 200 brands during FY26. The wellness business is projected to grow at over 50% CAGR through FY31, while premiumisation remains a key margin lever. Nykaa plans to more than double its beauty customer base to 100 million by FY30 from about 45 million customers in FY26, with growth driven through deeper penetration in tier-2 and tier-3 cities, greater engagement with Gen Z and Gen Alpha consumers, vernacular content, creator-led discovery and expansion of its physical store footprint. India's BPC market is expected to grow from ₹1.8 lakh crore to ₹3.6 lakh crore by FY31, while premium online fashion is expected to roughly triple over the next five years. More than 40 per cent of new customers now come from Tier-I cities, while over 50 per cent of acquired customers use either iOS or premium Android devices. Gen Z and millennials (20-35 years) remain the largest cohorts, with average order value (AOV) around ₹4,600, which is 60 per cent higher than that of its peers.
Looking ahead to FY30, Nykaa will embed AI across every layer of the business - from discovery and personalization to merchandising and operations. According to CEO Nayar, "AI is opening up new possibilities in how we serve consumers and scale our business. From making discovery and personalisation more intuitive to improving speed, productivity and decision-making across the organization, we believe technology will be a powerful enabler of our next phase of growth." By combining deep consumer insights with AI-native capabilities, the company is creating a technology foundation that will power growth, efficiency and customer experience across its ecosystem. The company is using AI-driven forecasting and fulfilment optimisation to improve delivery efficiency, targeting same and next day delivery for 90 per cent orders by FY30 (from the current 40-50 per cent). This technology integration is expected to significantly enhance operational efficiency and customer service delivery across all business verticals. Jefferies notes that the AI lever is central to the model, with the company leveraging AI-native capabilities to enhance discovery, personalization, and operational efficiency. The brokerage further identified Nykaa's owned brands portfolio as a key growth engine, particularly as sales from off-platform channels continue to increase, with the company's owned brands portfolio expected to be a key growth engine as sales from off-platform channels continue to increase.
