Nykaa shares surged 3% to ₹320 after the company announced its 30% year-on-year revenue growth projection for Q1FY27, hitting a fresh 52-week high at ₹319.80 during Monday's intra-day trade. The stock was trading at a 4.5-year high and has surged over 21% in the last one month, significantly outperforming the benchmark Nifty MidCap 50's 3.5% gain. According to Business Standard, the stock hit a 52-week low at ₹197.62 on July 4, 2025, demonstrating the strong recovery momentum. JM Financial Services maintained its 'Buy' rating on Nykaa with a target price of ₹360, citing expectations of another robust earnings performance. Nomura reiterated its 'Buy' rating on the stock with a target price of ₹317, noting that sustained revenue momentum could create upside to FY27 and FY28 forecasts. However, analysts believe sustained margin expansion will be the key driver for the stock, with the current price trading at more than 100 times its FY28 price-to-earnings ratio, suggesting limited upside from current levels.
The beauty business, Nykaa's steady revenue generator, is expected to post NSV and net revenue growth in the late twenties percent range, with net revenue growth likely to marginally trail NSV due to higher contribution from House of Nykaa brands which do not have a marketing income component. According to the company, the performance was attributed to robust customer acquisition, strong omnichannel execution and healthy growth in marketing income. The company highlighted that House of Nykaa continues to demonstrate rapid growth, with brands such as Kay Beauty, Nykaa Cosmetics and Dot & Key delivering consistent success. The beauty vertical's growth was supported by mid-teen like-for-like growth in retail stores and continued network expansion, with the company's omnichannel beauty business maintaining the accelerated growth seen in the previous quarter. Nomura estimates BPC NSV and revenue growth of around 29% and 27%, respectively, broadly in line with the previous quarter. Beauty, which contributed over 90% to consolidated FY26 revenue of ₹10,000 crore, remains the mainstay segment.
The fashion segment emerged as the standout performer with NSV and net revenue growth expected to range above 50% in the upcoming quarterly results for the April to June period, representing a sharp acceleration from earlier quarters and marking a multi-quarter high. As reported by the company, this growth uplift was driven by an excellent performance of the Fashion vertical, along with steady momentum in the Beauty vertical, both of which also saw robust customer acquisition. According to the latest BSE filing, Nykaa's Fashion vertical has started FY2027 on a notably stronger footing, with NSV growth expected to be in mid-fifties, marking a sharp acceleration from previous quarters. For the June quarter, the management expects consolidated gross merchandise value (GMV) and net sales value (NSV) growth to accelerate to the early 30s, which is better than analysts' estimates. Nomura estimates fashion NSV and revenue growth of around 55% and 50%, respectively, a sharp improvement from 42% and 40% in the March quarter. This recovery was attributed to improvement in the GMV-to-NSV conversion, lower leakages, expansion of its brand assortment and sustained marketing investments, which drove robust customer acquisition. The company noted that all major fashion categories delivered strong performance during the quarter, with growth being broad-based across women's, men's, kids' and home categories. The Nike partnership has delivered encouraging early results, strengthening the company's premium brand proposition and positioning the fashion business for another quarter of healthy growth.
The company's retail footprint expanded to 324 stores as of June 30, 2026, up from 313 in March 2026, with existing stores also seeing healthy sales growth. Retail performance grew about 15% on the back of higher same store sales, demonstrating the strength of the company's omnichannel strategy. As reported by Nykaa, these numbers are provisional and still need to go through a limited review by its auditors. The company continued to expand its omnichannel presence, adding 11 stores during the quarter to take its total store count to 324. Nomura said the omnichannel beauty business '
Nomura expects consolidated revenue to grow around 30% year-on-year in Q1FY27, slightly ahead of its earlier estimate of 29%, with EBITDA margin improving to 8.5%, up 170 basis points year-on-year. According to the company's exchange filing, this growth uplift was driven by an excellent performance of the Fashion vertical, along with steady momentum in the Beauty vertical, both of which also saw robust customer acquisition. The company noted that the data showed that the company's revenue growth jumped from ₹5,150 crore in FY23 to ₹10,000 crore in FY26 while the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin improved from 5.0% to 7.5% in the same period. In the January to March quarter results for FY2025-26, Nykaa reported a 290% rise in consolidated net profit to ₹78 crore, compared year-on-year with ₹20 crore in the same period. Revenue from core operations advanced 28% to ₹2,648 crore, from ₹2,062 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year. JM Financial Research believes the strong quarter was supported by robust customer acquisition across both verticals, sustained traction in House of Nykaa brands and improving GMV-to-NSV conversion in fashion. With both businesses continuing to scale well, the brokerage expects operating leverage to remain favourable, supporting another quarter of healthy earnings delivery. Growing contribution of House of Nykaa brands like Dot & Key (13x growth in three years) and Kay Beauty (3x growth), and increasing premiumization through the likes of Korean beauty and derma-cosmetics have expanded Ebitda margin to 9.6% in FY26, from 8.9% in FY25. Nomura believes consistent improvement in operating profit margin from 7.5% in FY26 to 8.9% in FY27 and 10% in FY28 will be the key catalyst for the stock, noting that it doesn't expect much impact of inflation on demand.
