According to Bloomberg data, NTPC Ltd. is forecast to achieve a record dividend payout in FY27 despite expected earnings per share decline. The power producer's dividend is projected at ₹9.42 per share for FY27, up from ₹9 in FY26, representing a 4.7% increase. This contrasts sharply with EPS expectations, which are forecast to decline 6.6% to ₹26.07 from ₹27.90 in FY26. The dividend forecast would mark a new high in the company's historical data series spanning FY18-FY26.
As reported by Axis Direct, NTPC continues to demonstrate robust expansion across both thermal and renewable energy segments. The company's installed capacity grew by 1,796 MW in Q1 FY27 to 90,904 MW as of June 30, 2026, while carrying around 35.7 GW of capacity under construction across coal, hydro, and renewable energy projects. Thermal capacity is guided to increase from 74 GW in June 2026 to 84 GW by FY32 and 97 GW by FY37. Meanwhile, the group's operational renewable energy capacity stands at around 12 GW, backed by 16.4 GW under construction. Axis Direct has maintained a 'Buy' rating on NTPC with a target price of ₹420.
The divergence between earnings and dividends is most evident in the projected payout ratios. According to Bloomberg estimates, NTPC would distribute 36.11% of its earnings as dividends in FY27, compared with 32.26% in FY26. This higher payout ratio explains how the dividend can rise even as EPS declines. The FY27 payout ratio would still remain below several earlier years, including 40.04% in FY18, 39.50% in FY19, and 41.57% in FY23.
As reported by Bloomberg, the FY27 forecast represents a significant departure from historical patterns. The only previous year in the dataset when NTPC's EPS declined was FY20, when EPS fell to ₹11.72 from ₹12.77 in FY19. That year, the company's actual dividend of ₹3.15 missed Bloomberg's estimate of ₹5.49 by 42.6%. The current FY27 consensus would mark the opposite outcome - a decline in EPS but an increase in dividend, potentially breaking the pattern seen in the earlier EPS decline year.
According to Bloomberg data, NTPC's dividend has demonstrated consistent growth throughout most of the historical period, with notable fluctuations in pace. The company paid ₹4.08 per share in FY18, followed by ₹5.97 in FY19, before declining to ₹3.15 in FY20. Following the FY20 decline, dividends increased to ₹6.15 in FY21, ₹7 in FY22, ₹7.25 in FY23, ₹7.75 in FY24, ₹8.35 in FY25, and ₹9 in FY26. Bloomberg's projected three-year dividend growth of 6.70% indicates continued upward momentum. Despite the record dividend forecast, the yield impact remains modest according to Bloomberg projections.
