NMDC shares have gained about 16% so far in 2026, trading at an enterprise value of 6-6.5 times its FY27 estimated EBITDA, as per various brokerages. The stock rose 3.6% to ₹95.67 on Tuesday, hitting a 52-week high as the company delivered impressive Q4 FY26 results. The company has implemented two price hikes this quarter, totalling ₹650 per tonne for iron ore fines, and a modest ₹150 per tonne for lumps, benefiting from robust demand and firm global iron ore prices. Revenue rose by 61% year-on-year to ₹11,200 crore in Q4FY26, driven by one-off trading of steel products for NMDC Steel, while revenue from iron ore sales rose 17% led by volume growth of 21% to 15.3 million tonnes, the highest ever quarterly volume. However, realization declined marginally to ₹4,873 per tonne.
NMDC delivered consolidated net profit of ₹2,017 crore in Q4 FY26, representing a 36% year-on-year increase and 16% quarter-on-quarter growth, as reported by Business Standard. Consolidated revenue surged 62% YoY to ₹11,340 crore, driven by record production and strong non-ore sales. EBITDA rose by 29% to ₹2,640 crore, led by lower royalties and other expenses, with EBITDA per tonne at ₹1,729, higher by 7% YoY and 2% QoQ. Iron ore sales volumes hit an all-time high of 15.3 million tonnes in Q4 FY26, up 21% YoY and 20% QoQ, as reported by Business Standard. Average realizations improved 2% sequentially to ₹4,759 per tonne, up 33% year-on-year, indicating better pricing power in the domestic market. The strong performance was driven by robust operational metrics, with profit before tax jumping 22.31% YoY to ₹2,875.41 crore and EBITDA standing at ₹3,072 crore, registering 21% growth compared with ₹2,538 crore in Q4 FY25.
FY27 production guidance stands at 60 million tonnes and is targeted to reach 100 million tonnes by 2030, as reported by CNBC TV18. For the first two months of FY27, production has reached 10 million tonnes, in line with the guidance. For FY26, production stood at 53 million tonnes, up 21% year-on-year, and close to its guidance of 55 million tonnes. The company guides for annual capex of ₹6,000 crore over the next 2-3 years to fund this expansion. Capital expenditure is expected to grow to ₹6,000 crore in FY27 from ₹3,300 crore in FY26, with the company planning to spend a total of ₹40,000-50,000 crore to increase its volume to 100 million tonnes by 2030. During Q4FY26, NMDC commissioned a mine in Bailadila, Chhattisgarh, a joint venture with Chhattisgarh Mineral Development Corp, and expects to produce about 1.5 million tonnes of ore from this mine in FY27. The pelletization plant in joint venture with KIOCL Ltd achieved production of 2.4 million tonnes in FY26, reflecting a swift ramp-up, and is targeted to reach 3.3 million tonnes in FY27.
NMDC is moving into coking and non-coking coal mines and exploring other critical minerals and rare earth elements, as reported by Business Standard. The company expects thermal coal production from its first mine at Tokisud, Jharkhand, to begin in Q2FY27, with FY27 production guided at 0.75-1 million tonnes. The coking coal mine at Rohne, Jharkhand, having peak capacity of 8 million tonnes per annum, is expected to begin production in FY28. Management hopes coal will contribute ₹5,000-8,000 crore of revenue over FY27-29 in a back-ended fashion. NMDC has set up a subsidiary to enter the rare earth and other critical minerals markets and is scouting for assets abroad. "We should be spending ₹2,000-3,000 crores on acquisition of assets abroad this year," the management said in the earnings call. The company maintains a healthy net cash position of ₹4,920 crore at the end of FY26, with ongoing capex funded through internal accruals.
Brokerages have a mixed view of NMDC's earnings impact from price and volumes. Nuvama Institutional Equities has raised its FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates by 13% and 16% respectively, while ICICI Securities has revised its estimates by -4% and 5% respectively. NMDC's shares have risen about 10% after an impressive March quarter performance, as reported by CNBC TV18. While the price trend looks favourable currently, the medium-term trajectory may not be very favourable. "Although we maintain our positive stance on iron ore demand in FY27, steel capacity additions will likely slow in FY28/FY29, putting some pressure on prices," noted ICICI Securities. The company's operating profit margin for the quarter stood at 23.31%, compared to 29.28% in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
